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The USD/CAD weekly forecast indicates that the price has been moving back towards three-month highs, suggesting a bullish trend. The pair has held between the 1.3890 level and the 1.3980 mark, indicating robust buying demand. The upside move stemmed from the waning Canadian dollar instead of the U.S. dollar.

Moving ahead, the U.S. dollar may stay elevated despite the Federal Reserve maintaining its current rate cut outlook. Rising inflation and labor market instabilities could keep U.S. Treasury yields high. 

On the other hand, Canadian economic dependence on oil exports and global growth challenges could keep the Loonie on its back foot. Even though the Canadian dollar recovered by the end of the week, it still saw a 0.1% weekly decline. 

This marked its second weekly loss, hitting its lowest level since May earlier this week. Analysts credit the Loonie’s weak performance to the declining crude oil prices and a downturn in the Canadian trade. Although oil rose 1% to $61.06 per barrel, it braced for a weekly dip amid the news that OPEC+ nations could increase production. 

In light of these events, the USD/CAD currency pair has stayed a strong candidate for US dollar-strength trades as we enter the fourth quarter, along with the potential of challenging the 1.4000 level. 

USD/CAD Key Events Next Week

Some of the major events happening next week include the following:
 

• Fed’s Bostic Speech (Tuesday).
• International Merchandise Trade (Tuesday).
• FOMC minutes (Wednesday).
• Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday).
• Change in Employment (Friday).
• Average Hourly Wages (Friday).
• Unemployment Rate (Friday).
• Participation Rate (Friday).

USD/CAD Weekly Technical Forecast: Make or Break at the 1.4000 Level
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

USD/CAD daily chart

The price of the USD/CAD pair has been challenging a resistance level near the 1.3969 mark, staying closer to the highs from late August. The price has been consistently rising above the 50-day (green), 100-day (yellow), and 200-day moving averages. The upward slope of all these MAs reveals the strength of the bullish trend. 

The RSI at 63.84 indicates that the market could rise before reaching the overbought level at 70. However, the price has been trading near the resistance level of 1.3970. If the prices surge above the 1.3970 mark, it could then target the next resistance level at 1.4000. However, if it fails to break out of this area, it may lead to a pullback towards the 1.3827 mark, or even lower. 

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