The USD/CAD price analysis leans bullish, with the Canadian dollar falling due to a decline in oil prices. At the same time, investors remained cautious as markets prepared for the US monthly employment report. 

Oil prices eased Tuesday as Chinese demand concerns intensified, overshadowing Libya’s supply worries. A drop in oil weakens the Canadian dollar, a commodity currency. Canada mainly exports oil, so its currency moves with oil prices. 

Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened against the weak loonie as market participants awaited the crucial US nonfarm payrolls report. The greenback had a strong rally last week as data revealed a resilient US economy, reducing the likelihood of an aggressive Fed rate-cutting cycle.

At the same time, fears of a looming recession eased as hopes of a soft landing increased. On Friday, data showed that inflation increased as expected. This relieved pressure on the Fed to implement significant rate cuts. Nevertheless, investors are still fully pricing a rate cut in September. 

Market focus has now shifted to this week’s major US employment report, which will significantly impact rate cut expectations as it did last month. The Fed is keeping a close high on the unemployment rate, which shows the likelihood of a recession.

The rate unexpectedly jumped in July, raising fears of a rapid economic slowdown. Another jump could bolster bets for a super-sized 50-bps Fed rate cut in September. However, economists expect the unemployment rate to ease slightly to 4.2% in August. 

USD/CAD key events today

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI

USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bulls set sights on 1.3600

(Click on image to enlarge)

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has moved from below the 30-SMA to above it, indicating a shift in sentiment. Bulls took over after the price failed to break below the 1.3450 support level. 

Bearish momentum reached maximum levels, with the RSI in the oversold region. After that, bulls took over, pushing the price above the SMA. However, the price must now make higher highs and lows to confirm a new bullish trend. In this case, the price would revisit and likely break above the 1.3600 key resistance level.

More By This Author: