USD Q2 2021 Technical Forecast

Technical Analysis: US Dollar Begins With a Bounce But The Big Bear Still Lurks

It was a bizarre beginning to a New Year for the US Dollar, but given 2020 I’m not sure how surprising it should be. The US Dollar came into 2021 after a very clear and strong one-sided trend enveloped the currency for the final 8 months of last year. Around the 2021 open, the US Dollar was flashing oversold conditions while also working on a falling wedge formation, which is often approached with the aim of bullish reversals.

Dollar, Banknote, United States

As I had written in the Q1 Tech Forecast for the US Dollar, I did expect a counter-trend move to show up on the basis of that context. But where I went wrong was my expectation that a prolonged bout of USD-strength would likely emanate from risk aversion. Instead, the continued bullish push in the US Dollar in Q1 was more related to the rates theme as US Treasury Yields jumped by as much as 90% during the period.

In a bizarre twist, it is that same driver highlighting optimism around a faster return-to-normal that may become a bearish driver in and of itself. We’ve started to see hues of risk aversion as rates on the 10-year note have topped above 1.6%. Throughout the quarter the Fed has remained as dovish as can be, even telling market participants that they’re planning on shrugging off above-target inflation prints. So, at this point, a similar root cause that I’d noted in Q1 appears to remain at play, as longer-term shorts in USD have continued to be squeezed as the sell-off has stalled, helped along by the rates picture that’s helped to keep buyers on the bid behind the USD.

On the below monthly chart of the US Dollar, we can see the three consecutive months of strength after price action tested a confluent area of support – plotted around the 90.00-level which is very close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2001-2008 major move (UUP, UDN).

US Dollar Index (DXY) – Monthly Timeframe (2001 To Present)

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