After hitting a record in October, the delayed data for the US Trade Balance (Deficit) in November showed the deficit shrank dramatically.

Against expectations of a small drop to $54.0 billion, the US trade deficit dropped 11.5% to 49.3 billion - smaller than the lowest estimate of 56 economists ($51.6bn to $60bn)...

Under the hood:

• Imports fell 2.9% in Nov. to $259.19b from $266.88b in Oct.

• Exports fell 0.6% in Nov. to $209.87b from $211.18b in Oct.

We suspect - though data is limited for now, that a lot of the deficit shrinkage was due to a drop in the Petroleum balance of trade - which was at its smallest deficit since 1998 in October...

Is this the start of the reversal of Trump's trade deficit dive? We will know soon when the delayed data is released (but weakness in imports and exports is not a good sign).