US Stock Futures:

• Stock futures in the US oscillate between small gains and losses as traders return from Thanksgiving to a shortened day of trading.
• Treasury yields rebound from recent lows following a selloff in European bonds.
• Investors await the S&P Global PMIs for the first update on US economic performance in November.
• NVIDIA’s premarket trading down approximately 1.6% after delaying the launch of a new AI chip designed to comply with US export rules until Q1 2024.
• US stock market closing early on Friday.
• S&P 500 and Dow Jones both gained 0.9% so far this week, Nasdaq up nearly 1%.

Currency and Interest Rates:

• Dollar index steadies around 103.8, holding recent gains.
• Stronger-than-anticipated data prompts traders to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
• Thin trading volume due to Thanksgiving holiday.
• New jobless claims fall more than expected last week.
• Inflation expectations for both near and long term rise, raising concerns about prolonged higher interest rates.
• FOMC minutes indicate Fed’s preference for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy with no indications of rate cuts soon.
• Markets anticipate Fed to keep rates unchanged in December; rate cut bets scaled back for March.
• Yield on 10-year US Treasury note edges higher to 4.48%, rebounding from two-month lows.
• Recent FOMC minutes suggest Fed will maintain restrictive monetary policy and proceed carefully.

Upcoming Data:

• S&P Global PMIs for the US due later in the day to provide the first update on economic performance in November.

E-mini S&P 500 Perspective

The E-mini S&P 500 is currently trading with little change, hovering around 4565. The market appears to be adopting a balanced and rotational approach, with traders seemingly focusing on the extremes of the balanced to p-shaped structured volume profile. The bias perception might be inclined towards the auction’s position relative to the Point of Control (POC) level from the prior session.

Looking at the daily interval, we see the formation of another balanced price range above the previously broken-out bracket, with market participants relying on the extremes for guidance.

Positive volatility could exert some pressure, but the lower dollar might provide support to the auction process, potentially leading to balanced and rotational scenarios.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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