US Session Bullet Report

Gold is testing the 50 day moving average after dropping to another session low at $1140. Overall some short covering on the last day of the month is also responsible for the USD weakness. Apparent weakness is against the EURO which has rebounded to 1.1050 despite negative US data. It looks like the market is not convinced from Wednesdays FOMC clues that indicated that the FED will raise rates. Hence the price action favors a mild USD correction (weakness). While USD is down versus European majors, it is down versus commodity currencies. Meanwhile, oil prices are poised to end the week in gains despite the big supplies of stock in inventories. Next week will be a catalyst as to future direction for the USD but also the GBP. Bank of England will have another Super Thursday with the simultaneous release of the rate decision, vote, minutes, and Inflation Report while US will release the market driving NFP numbers.

Trading Quote of the Day:”A great trader is like a great athlete. You have to have natural skills, but you have to train yourself how to use them.” Marty Schwartz

Green lines are resistance, Red lines are support

EUR/USD
Pivot: 1.0965
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.0965 with targets @ 1.11 & 1.114 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.0965 look for further downside with 1.0935 & 1.0895 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.
 

GBP/USD

Pivot: 1.53
Likely scenario: Long positions above 1.53 with targets @ 1.5395 & 1.542 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.53 look for further downside with 1.5275 & 1.525 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.

AUD/USD

Pivot: 0.7065
Likely scenario: Long positions above 0.7065 with targets @ 0.716 & 0.72 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 0.7065 look for further downside with 0.7015 & 0.6975 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is well directed.

USD/JPY

Pivot: 121.2
Likely scenario: Short positions below 121.2 with targets @ 120.15 & 119.95 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 121.2 look for further upside with 121.5 & 121.75 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is badly directed.

USD/CAD

Pivot: 1.32
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1.32 with targets @ 1.3115 & 1.3085 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.32 look for further upside with 1.324 & 1.328 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is mixed to bearish.

USD/CHF

Pivot: 0.996
Likely scenario: Short positions below 0.996 with targets @ 0.9815 & 0.9755 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 0.996 look for further upside with 1 & 1.0045 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is badly directed.

GOLD

Pivot: 1157
Likely scenario: Short positions below 1157 with targets @ 1138 & 1131 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1157 look for further upside with 1162.5 & 1168.5 as targets.
Comment: The break below 1157 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 1138.

OIL

Pivot: 45.16
Likely scenario: Long positions above 45.16 with targets @ 46.77 & 47.3 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 45.16 look for further downside with 44.3 & 43.75 as targets.
Comment: A support base at 45.16 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.

DAX

Pivot: 10680
Likely scenario: Long positions above 10680 with targets @ 11000 & 11100 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 10680 look for further downside with 10460 & 10280 as targets.
Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.