US Data & Fed On Watch

Looking ahead today we have plenty to watch in terms of USD action. The October ADP employment number, JOLTS job openings and October ISM all come ahead of the November FOMC meeting due this evening.  US economic resilience has been one of the core market themes recently, helping feed into higher US treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar. If today’s data maintains this theme, USD should be bid leading into the Fed tonight.

FOMC Outlook

In terms of the Fed, Powell recently commented that strong bond yields were helping manage financial conditions, diluting the urgent need for further Fed tightening. No policy change is expected from the Fed today and all the focus will instead be on the guidance offered. Last time around the Fed signalled that it still sees one further hike this cycle before keeping rates on hold for an extended period at current levels.

Market Reaction

If the Fed maintains this view, or gives any clear timing signal, this should keep USD and US yields firmly bid. However, if the Fed departs from this view at all, perhaps in mentioning tighter financial conditions as a result of firmer bond yields, traders will likely interpret this as a sign that no further hikes are coming, leading to a near-term USD unwind.

Technical Views

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DXY

While the rally in DXY has stalled over the last month, capped for now by the 107.57 level, bullish pressure is building once again. With 104.95 holding as support, recent action can be viewed as corrective consolidation, paving the way for a fresh break higher. Through 107.57 focus will shift to 109.18 as the next target for bulls. 

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