Those seeking early indicators of an imminent recession just got it courtesy of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which tumbled from 14 in November to -8, crushing expectations of a modest rebound to 15, weighed down by drops in the indexes for new orders and shipments.

With analysts expecting the Richmond Fed to print between 12 and 17, the -8 print was a 20 sigma event relative to expectations.

The internals were an unmitigated disaster, with the shipments index print of -25 was its lowest reading since April 2009 even as the third component, the index for employment, rose. Additionally, respondents indicated a deterioration in local business conditions, as this index fell to −25, its lowest reading on record. Most other metrics were dismal:

• Shipments fell to -25 after 12 the prior month
• Local business conditions printed the lowest on record at -25 after 5 last month
• New order volume slowed to -9 after 17 the prior month
• Order backlogs fell to -18 after 15 the prior month
• Capacity utilization slowed to -16 after 9 the prior month
• Inventory levels of finished goods increased to 13 after 2 last month
• Inventory levels of raw goods rose to 15 after 5 last month