US Dollar Index Pulls Back From Weekly High, Fed Rate Hike Bets Should Limit Deeper Losses

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  • The US Dollar struggles to capitalize on the overnight US CPI-inspired gains to the weekly high.
  • The uncertainty over the Fed’s rate-hike path is seen as a key factor capping gains for the buck.
  • The fundamental backdrop still supports prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, edges lower during the Asian session on Friday and erodes a part of the previous day's US CPI-inspired strong gains to the weekly high. The downside, however, seems cushioned in the wake of reviving bets for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Thursday that the headline US CPI rose 0.4% in September and the yearly rate held steady at 3.7% as compared to expectations for a downtick to 3.6%. Meanwhile, the Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, matched estimates and eased to the 4.1% YoY rate in September, hitting a 24-month low. The inflation, meanwhile, remains above the Fed's target and keeps the door open for at least one more Fed rate hike in 2023.

Furthermore, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that the latest inflation data underscores uneven progress toward restoring price stability. Collins reiterated her view that the central bank may have to raise rates again to combat inflation. This, in turn, suggests that the US central bank will have to keep rates higher for longer. This led to the overnight sharp rise in the US bond yields and should continue to act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD), warranting some caution for bearish traders.

The recent dovish comments from other Fed officials, meanwhile, raise the uncertainty over the future rate-hike path and put a lid on the US bond yields, which is undermining the buck. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favour of the USD bulls and suggests that the downtick might be seen as a buying opportunity. Traders now look to Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker's speech and the Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for a fresh impetus.

Technical levels to watch

DOLLAR INDEX SPOT

OVERVIEW
Today last price 106.4
Today Daily Change -0.18
Today Daily Change % -0.17
Today daily open 106.58

 

TRENDS
Daily SMA20 106.03
Daily SMA50 104.64
Daily SMA100 103.54
Daily SMA200 103.2

 

LEVELS
Previous Daily High 106.6
Previous Daily Low 105.54
Previous Weekly High 107.35
Previous Weekly Low 105.95
Previous Monthly High 106.84
Previous Monthly Low 103.27
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 106.2
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 105.95
Daily Pivot Point S1 105.88
Daily Pivot Point S2 105.18
Daily Pivot Point S3 104.81
Daily Pivot Point R1 106.95
Daily Pivot Point R2 107.31
Daily Pivot Point R3 108.01


More By This Author:

GBP/USD Hovers Around 1.2200 Post Recent Losses On Upbeat US Data
USD/JPY Climbing Back Towards 150.00 After US CPI Inflation Beat Kicks Off A Round Of Risk Aversion
EUR/USD Tumbles Below 1.0600 As DXY Soars After US CPI

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Comments

Frank Underwood 11 months ago Member's comment

Hikes are done.