US Consumers Will Push Back On High Food Prices, Mondelez CEO Says

America's top snack company, Mondelez International (MDLZ), told Bloomberg TV on Friday that consumers will begin to push back on rising food prices as the economy reopens. 

Dirk Van de Put, chief executive officer of snack company Mondelez, said consumers had tolerated price increases made by the company, but that could soon change as their more stationary lifestyles revert to more active ones. 

Snacks sold by Mondelez have been subjected to price increases in the last two years as snarled supply chains, rising commodity prices, and soaring labor costs forced the company to increase prices. Also, pandemic demand created shortages for some snacks, driving prices even higher. 

Consumers are now out of the house and heading to bars, restaurants, malls, and other shopping areas. Van de Put explained: "I assume as the consumer will change and we get out of the pandemic and they start to spend more on other items, and they start to eat out more and so on, that that's where the moment comes that they might not be so benign as it relates to the price elasticity," Van de Put said. 

In other words, Mondelez has spotted a significant challenge: food inflation could cause some consumers to stop purchasing their snacks as they eat at restaurants and bars. 

Mondelez reported fourth-quarter adjusted earnings that missed Wall Street's estimates, sending shares down 3% to $65.50 around 1300 ET. The pandemic rise in share prices was due to the stationary lifestyles of consumers as public health officials ordered lockdowns and corporations forced employees to work from home. There were also restrictions on eateries that limited indoor capacity.

Robert Finkel, managing director of equity trading at Stifel Financial Corp who specializes in the consumer sector, expects the upcoming Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) Conference next month "will have a common theme as management teams of America's top food companies will try to strike a delicate balance between keeping up with inflation, not destroying margins and not turning off their consumers." 

During CAGNY, which runs between Feb. 22-25, Finkel said management teams would be talking about inflation, margins, and pricing. 

And Mondelez is not the only food producer running into a possible demand wall due to soaring prices and consumer shifts. Kraft-Heinz (KHC) (in which Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns a big stake) is set to raise prices in March on dozens of its most popular products.

The hikes will affect brands including Oscar Mayer cold cuts, hot dogs, sausages, bacon, Velveeta cheese, Maxwell House coffee, TGIF frozen chicken wings, Kool-Aid, and Capri Sun. The question now is how much of these price hikes can consumers afford? 

According to the most recent CPI data release, headline consumer prices surged 7% in December, which was the strongest level in nearly 40 years. Food prices alone rose 0.5% month-over-month.

And don't fall for the excuse that wages are rising and that's a good thing. Real wages have shrunk for nine straight months.

The result of all of this is that smaller supermarkets with less pricing power will get crushed, such as the Krogers (KR) of the world who've been slapped with two downgrades. They're facing a double-edged sword of either passing along costs that would decline foot traffic or face margin compression. The Walmarts (WMT) of the world have more playing room. 

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No Scrubs 2 years ago Member's comment

Consumers can try to grow and make their own food, it will cost 10 times more!!! Food and sneakers are the cheapest thing in America!!! Inflation is here and America needs inflation, food prices will go up more!

Michele Grant 2 years ago Member's comment

The author was not saying people would grow food. He was saying if food prices go up, they'll likely go out to eat more.

No Scrubs 2 years ago Member's comment

That makes no sense, if food prices go up than restaurant prices go up as well! If budget is tight people tend to eat out less! This CEO was talking nonsense! He said it just to say something and show himself off, its a stupid, extremely stupid idea if you think about it! Take your family as an example and you will see it... 50% of people in US own less than 1% of all equities, that was 3 years ago, now its even worse!!! You think they will go out more? Common! Middle class is almost gone, you have 10 % of people that live nicely and that's it... O sorry, he was probably referring to himself because he probably eats out a lot!!! Guess what, he is in top 1% of all people in US!!! 75% of all people are cooking more, eating at home more!!! This trend will not change!gif

Angry Old Lady 2 years ago Member's comment

As fat as this country is...doubt it. :)