Confidence Index and excerpts below by permission from from the Conference Board.

Steep Confidence Decline

The Conference Board reports US Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply in November

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 6.8 points in November to 88.7 (1985=100) from 95.5 in October.
• The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9.
• The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell by 8.6 points to 63.2.
• The Expectations Index has tracked below 80 for ten consecutive months, the threshold under which the gauge signals recession ahead.
• Confidence fell among consumers of all political stripes, with the sharpest retreat among independent voters.

Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist Comments

“Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions. The labor market differential—the share of consumers who say jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying ‘hard to get’—dipped again in November after a brief respite in October from its year-to-date decline. All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November. Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.”

 “Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown. Mentions of the labor market eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited. The overall tone from November write-ins was slightly more negative than in October.” 

Expectations Six Months Hence        

• 15.9% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 18.9% in October.
• 27.7% expected business conditions to worsen, up from 22.2%.

Trump Doubles Down

On November 9 NBC reported Trump doubles down on the economy despite a strong rebuke from voters

“We had the greatest economy in the history of our country,” Trump said of his first term in an interview with Norah O’Donnell for CBS’ “60 Minutes” a week ago. “But my second term is blowing it away.”

Two days later, voters blew away Republican candidates up and down the ballot in Virginia and New Jersey, results that reinforced NBC News polling showing that the vast majority of voters — about two-thirds — think the president hasn’t lived up to his promises to curb inflation and improve the economy. The common watchword for Democratic candidates who won on Tuesday — both progressives and centrists — was “affordability.”

“The reason I don’t want to talk about affordability is because everybody knows that it’s far less expensive under Trump than it was under ‘Sleepy Joe Biden,’ and the prices are way down,” he said of his predecessor in remarks to reporters last week.

Trump Sounds Like Biden

Trump says he does not want to talk about affordability because it’s great.

Excuse me, but if affordability was great, Trump would not shut up about it.

It’s pathetic, but Trump now sounds like Joe Biden.

Consumer Sentiment Drops Again, Current Conditions Hit New Record Low

The Conference Board survey is not to be confused with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Independently, they say the same thing.

On November 10, I noted Consumer Sentiment Drops Again, Current Conditions Hit New Record Low

Current conditions did hit a new all-time record low of 52.3 vs 53.8 during the covid pandemic.

Expectations are now 49.0 vs the pandemic low of 47.3.

In response to the University of Michigan survey, I had this exchange with a reader.

Tom: “Still quoting the forces of evil as if they were reliable sources of information rather than Intel Blob propaganda, Bloomberg (Evil) NBC News (Evil)”

Mish: OK Tom

1: What conspiratorial BS source do you want me to quote?
2: What exactly did Bloomberg say you disagree with?

OK have at it. Those with TDS and TWS attack sources rather than make objective comments.

Today, the Conference Board (paid subscription) echoes the University of Michigan survey, Bloomberg reports, NBC reports, and numerous polls including the latest Fox News poll.

But all of those surveys, reports, and polls are wrong to those proudly parroting the TWS view.

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