US Cash Deficit November 2018: $223B

Well…I’m behind again…almost ready to drop the 2018 Full Year….but to do that I need to post something on November. So…Huge deficit number….$223B…highest I have on record…. and $62B higher than last year’s $161B deficit….let’s dig in.


Revenues were essentially flat…which maybe we chalk up as a win given the tax cut YOY comps….not much to see there.


+$62B….which pretty much explains the variance….and a good chunk of this is the month end timing…December 1 fell on a weekend, so a lot of outlays due 12/1 instead went out 11/30…about $45B or so. Not to worry…November’s loss is December’s gain…December outlays should be about $45B light all else equal.


I’m gonna keep it short here and move on to December….flat revenues with increasing outlays…even when we pull out timing…pretty much par for the course in 2018. Looking at the YTD…revenue is up a little less than 1% while outlays are up 7%. With one month left... don't expect a lot of change…our timing issue will fall off in December and we should post a small surplus.

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