UBS: 64% Of Chinese Smartphone Buyers Intend To Buy The IPhone 6

According to a recent survey conducted by Steve Milunovich from UBS, some 64% of Chinese with an intent to purchase a smartphone, would opt for one of the iPhone 6 models.

That compares to 41% in the US and 30% in Europe.

UBS Analyst Steve Milunovich

When it comes to customer retention, the Chinese also stand out with a retention rate of 84%, twice the rate of Samsung or Xiaomi.

"Our data is most encouraging for Apple, which we believe if Apple were valued more like a subscription businesses with low churn, its market cap might be able to double and would have upside potential to US $266 per share."

Despite those bullish remarks, Milunovich raises price targets conservatively from $115 to $125, while he upgrades iPhone 6 demand from 170 to 190 million units for CY 2015.

Here are some more interesting outcomes from the surveys:

  • 41% of all respondents plan to buy an iPhone 6 or 6 Plus over the next 12 months.
  • Of those with intent to buy the iPhone 6, more than half (53%) plan to buy the 6 Plus and 38% the smaller 6 model.
  • Just over half prefers the 64 GB memory configuration.
  • Almost 1/3 of intentional iPhone buyers currently own a Samsung phone (UBS estimate that 19% of Samsung owners may switch to Apple).
  • 70% of iPhone 6 buyers are at least somewhat likely to use Apple Pay

Disclosure: None.

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Doctor Zheng 6 years ago Member's comment

"subscription businesses with low churn, its market cap might be able to double and would have upside potential to US $266 per share." Actually the situation is far more complicated than what can be solved just by launching a new subscription for Chinese market. There are two main telecommuter companies in China, which is like verizon, att and tmoile in US, and there already exist iphone subscription services provided by one of the company. Set aside the fact that the actual price is still higher than the price in US after taking into consideration of exchange rate fluctuation and the fact that the services provided are complicated to understand and oh the fact that it is not possible to convert your phone number from one provider to the other, the problem is also kind of political related. So,to me, this statement is just as naive as it sounds like.