TRY/USD Forecast: Central Bank Approves More Monetary Tightening

The Central Bank of Turkey announced several new amendments aimed at setting limits for borrowing that takes place through credit cards, in conjunction with imposing some lending restrictions in some sectors. 


 

Today's recommendation on the TRY/USD

The risk is 0.50%.

 

Best buying entry points

  • Entering a buy order pending order from the 26.50 levels
  • Place a stop loss point to close below the 26.25 level.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the strong resistance level at 27.50.

 

Best-selling entry points

  • Entering a sell order pending order from the 27.50 level.
  • The best points to place a stop loss close to the highest level of 27.65.
  • Move the stop loss to the entry area and follow the profit when the price moves by 50 pips.
  • Close half of the contracts with a profit equal to 70 pips and leave the rest of the contracts until the support level at 26.50.

The trading of the TRY/USD stabilized during early trading this morning. The Turkish Central Bank continued to approve some measures that would contribute to tightening monetary policy in the country, which aims to reduce inflation in the country, which reached levels of approximately 38% during the month of June. The new economy team seeks to take over the country's economic affairs after the Turkish presidential elections. After raising interest rates during the past week, for the second time in a row, by nearly 900 basis points over the past month and the month of July.

The Central Bank of Turkey announced several new amendments aimed at setting limits for borrowing that takes place through credit cards, in conjunction with imposing some lending restrictions in some sectors. According to the amendments, the cost of cash withdrawals made using credit cards will increase, as well as restrictions aimed at reducing the increase in car loans. Restrictions on export and investment loans were not extended. New central bank decisions come as credit card spending records significant increases, reaching record levels, which are relied upon as an alternative to traditional loans that are accompanied by much higher bank interest.

 

TRY/USD Technical Outlook

On the technical front, the dollar pair stabilized against the Turkish lira during early trading this morning, as the pair recorded slight changes, the pair is trading around the integer 27 levels, near its highest levels ever recorded, which it reached during the previous week's trading. The pair is currently trading above the rectangle range that settled inside it about two weeks so that the pair returns to trading within a general bullish trend.

The price is currently trading below other resistance areas concentrated between the levels of 27.12 and 27.50, and the pair is also trading above the support levels that are concentrated at 26.50 and 26.00 respectively. The price is moving above the moving averages 50, 100, and 200 on the daily timeframe, as well as on the 4-hour and 60-minute timeframes, in a sign of the strong bullish general trend. It is expected that the impact of the tightening by the Turkish Central Bank on the price of the lira, which analysts estimated to be around 29 liras per dollar, is expected to be delayed. Please adhere to the figures in the recommendation, while maintaining capital management.

(Click on image to enlarge)

USD/TRY


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