Trading Opportunities For The Week Ahead – January 23rd
President Donald J. Trump Presiding Over the United States of America….
Media outlets inundated viewers with their opinions on the 58th Inauguration of the President of the United States. For the most part Trump’s fiery speech resonated with his disgruntled voters, but did little to assuage the concerns of Democrats. In typical firebrand fashion, President Trump outlined his core message to the American voter: You will never be forgotten again. The Trump phenomenon is grounded in patriotism, which has unfortunately been tarred with the same brush as National Socialism of war-era Germany.
Britain’s Brexit vote was a prelude to Trump’s election. We can expect similar movements to be taking place throughout Europe, with Scotland leaning towards an independence referendum this year. The global economy has already been spooked by fears of a Grexit, and that remains a viable proposition if the Greek economy cannot be stabilized. Viewed holistically, a new global economy is being formed, and multiple changes are underway. Key industries to look out for include the automobile industry, the energy industry, banking and finance, and the military.
Trading Opportunity #1 – USD/GBP Currency Pair Trending Bearish
The USD/GBP currency pair is presently 0.3121% lower at 0.8082. The pair has a 52-week high of 0.83 and a low of 0.67. The dollar’s recent decline against the GBP has been brought about by the dual effect of greenback weakness and a strengthening of the GBP. At the end of Q1 2017, US GDP is expected to decline to 2.50%. Within 12 months, US GDP should be hovering around 1.90%. Econometric models suggest that a 2% GDP figure will be attained by 2020. Optimism has been increasing in the US economy, what with initial jobless claims hitting a 43-year low recently. The number of unemployment benefits decreased from 249,000 (for the week ending January 8, 2017) to 234,000 for the week ending January 14, 2017. Markets were anticipating jobless claims of 254,000. This economic data release was bullish for the USD, and resulted in upbeat sentiment for the USD/GBP pair.
However, various factors in the UK economy are taking centre stage. Currency traders are expecting the next quarterly GDP figure in the UK to grow at 0.5 percent. The previous reading was 0.6%. The UK GDP release will be announced on Thursday, 26 January 2017. If the actual figure bests the consensus forecast, the GBP/USD pair will strengthen. Much of the weakness in the USD can be attributed to Donald Trump’s inauguration speech. Hidden in plain sight in his speech was talk of protectionism, and little in the way of infrastructure growth and development. The GBP could also strengthen further if the UK Supreme Court decides that Northern Ireland and Scotland be allowed to remain in the EU, despite the UK referendum on a Brexit on June 23, 2016. There is a lot riding on the Supreme Court decision, and the GBP/USD pair could certainly continue a short-term rally.
Trading Opportunity #2 – Gold Price is Steadily Rising
Gold is an interesting commodity to trade. Barring a few sessions in 2017, the precious metal has been rather bullish. In fact, the strong uptrend is worth trading. Weakness in the USD is fueling investors’ appetites for gold. Part of the reason we are seeing this short-term rally in gold is President Donald Trump. Any uncertainty that is brought to the financial markets invariably filters through to gold. The president’s tough talk on trade, NAFTA and the TPP are a rallying cry for gold bullion. The 30-day performance of gold shows an improvement of 6.47%, or $73.20 per ounce. Over the past 1 year, gold has lost much of its lustre, appreciating just 8.78%, or $97.20.
On Friday, 20 January 2017, US treasury yields dropped and the USD fell. Gold gained ground after US President Trump was sworn into office. Of course, the thrust of Trump’s inaugural speech was protectionism and that’s precisely why traders are rushing to gold. A key measure of gold’s performance is the US dollar index. This index declined by 0.4% during the trading session on Friday. But any gains in gold may prove short-lived if the Federal Reserve Bank moves on interest rates. Recall that at least 3 rate hikes are expected in 2017 and if this happens, dollar-denominated assets like gold will lose favour with traders. As a binary options gold trader, you should keep a close watch on the Fed, especially as its FOMC meetings draw near
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Trading Opportunity #3 – Citigroup, Inc (C) is Trending Bearish
Citigroup Inc. (C) is currently trading at $56.11 per share. This banking giant has been struggling of late, as evidenced by the strong downtrend in 2017. A quick look at the 50-day moving average indicates that put options on the stock are commonplace. The 50-day MA is $57.92, while the 200-day MA is $48.54. But there is a silver lining on the horizon with the stock, and it comes from Kuwait – the oil with rich nation. Various Gulf Arab monarchies are now selling their debt as oil prices continue to slump. Kuwait recently picked 6 banks, including Citigroup Inc. to manage the sale of its international debt. This is a positive for the stock, but one that will be unlikely to reverse the current trend. It is expected that the government of Kuwait could generate upwards of $10 billion in the global debt markets.
In the UK, Citigroup Inc. is contemplating relocating its financial services from the UK to Europe in the wake of Brexit proceedings. Citigroup, which features a major bank in Dublin is expecting to move 100 jobs in trading and sales from the UK. The reason why banks are leaving Europe is that they will lose their ‘passporting’ privileges to offer services to all European Union countries post-Brexit. The net effect of this on the stock remains unknown as there is little clarity on Brexit matters. Overall, analysts are bearish on the stock. The recent upgrades and downgrades history of Citigroup Inc. show 3 major downgrades since 18 November 2016. The most recent downgrade took place on 10 January 2017 when Standpoint Research downgraded Citigroup Inc. (C) from a buy to a hold rating. On a scale of 1.0 (strong buy) to 5.0 (sell), C is at 2.3.
Trading Opportunity #4 – The Dow Jones Industrial Average Winners and Losers
The best way to trade the Dow Jones Industrial Average is to understand its 30 components. The Dow comprises 30 of the biggest companies in the United States, and it is these companies that determine the value of the DJIA. Three weeks into 2017, we are seeing some clear trends developing with core companies on the Dow Jones. For example, since the November 8 presidential election financials, industrials and materials rallied. However, for 2017 these sectors are not performing as strongly. Financials are now down 2%, while energy is 1% lower. Health care is now up just 0.5%, after reaching a high as 2.5%. 13 stocks on the Dow Jones have generated losses in 2017.
The worst performing stocks on the Dow Jones include Pfizer Inc. (PFE), JPMorgan Chase & Company (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) and Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV). These 5 stocks comprise approximately 20% of the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and they make up 16.7% of its core components. The Dow Jones is currently trading at 19,827.25, with a total of 24 members up and 6 members down on Friday, 20 January 2017. The short-term performance of the Dow is bullish, and the 1-year return has been extremely bullish at + 26.53%. As a binary options trader, you can take heart from the recent performance of this index, but the protectionist trade policies that the Trump administration wants to enact may cause a weakening of this blue-chip index.
Disclosure: None
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