The last FOMC meeting of the year concludes today with a statement at 2pm. Stocks have paused for a bit as we await news of tariffs go through and what the Fed has to say about interest rates including the health of the economy. Rates have held relatively steady and expectations are for rates to remain steady for the foreseeable future. It would be great to see this market continue to consolidate at least a few more days. This would certainly set up for another push towards all-time highs. While many dismiss all-time highs they are a bullish signal for the stock market. We do not know the future and our focus is on what is in front of us.

We do not have a crystal ball predicting the future. Many attempt at predicting the future, but ultimately fail in the long-term. Failure happens when risk is not controlled. Of course, continuing to be on the wrong side of the market is detrimental too. Just as bad is sitting on the sidelines because you are emotional about your trading. 

We will need to see this market avoid a pile-up of distribution days. Just a handful of days with institutional selling would certainly raise a caution flag this market simply does not have the momentum to push higher. Of course, leading stocks will be a big tell too. If your holdings begin to trigger sell signals and the market is struggling its time to take a more cautious stance on this market. Until such time occurs we will continue to seek out new opportunities and manage our open risk. There is nothing overly complicated with trading. Keep things simple.

Tariffs and interest rates will be topics taking heads will cover. After today the shift will stay with the US and Chinese trade relations and whether phase 1 of the deal gets signed. At this point, it’s unreal both sides cannot come to the table and negotiate a fair deal. We aren’t experts in trade deals and will never pretend we know how this will shake out. Best to stick to what matters: Price.