TNX Hits Lowest Of Year
Say, wouldn’t it be funny if just as the MSM gets on a pervasive ‘YIELDS DROPPING!’ (despite ‘taper’ no less) theme the Continuum finds support and turns back up?
This site, its resident premium market report and the readers thereof knew (or should have known) of the probability of rates turning down at the limiter (AKA the 100 month EMA), but most people did not. They were on ‘Great Rotation’ fueled hysterical over load with respect to the secular stock bull and coming bond bear.
I just sold my TLT long-term bond fund ahead of the noted support target above being hit, but still hold IEF (7-10 year bonds) for now. Meanwhile, here’s a look at today’s yield curve structure from Bloomberg. Treasury yields are dropping from short to long, which means the curve is up today.
So today the curve lurches in a risk ‘OFF’ direction with an open question still being to what degree Ukraine is an influence. There is also some unhappy China data in the mix and that is in keeping with our big picture theme, which is slowly inching to risk ‘OFF’ and everything that comes with it, like a market counter cycle.