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Key Takeaways

• Holiday-thin trading magnified TMC Inc.’s drop, causing a sharp 10% decline without a new operational catalyst.
• NOAA deep-sea mining hearings and public comments will likely remain key near-term catalysts for TMC's stock movement.
• Analysts saw moderate upside for TMC, but wide price target ranges have reflected regulatory and operational uncertainties.
• High short interest, active options, and metals market risks may make TMC prone to sudden, volatile price swings.

TMC Inc. (TMC), a metals and critical-minerals company, saw its shares tumble 10.5% on Friday, Dec. 26, in a holiday-thin trading session that amplified volatility. The stock ended the day at $6.82 after swinging between $6.61 and $7.68, before ticking slightly higher to around $6.90 in extended trading. Trading volume surged to 11.5 million shares, well above the usual levels for year-end sessions.

As markets have remained closed for the weekend, investors will be looking to Monday for potential catalysts, particularly regulatory developments surrounding deep-sea mining, and analyst guidance.
 

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Image Source: KnockoutStocks

Holiday Trading Exacerbates Swings

Friday’s selloff did not stem from a single operational update. Rather, it reflected the market’s sensitivity to thin liquidity and seasonal dynamics.

Analysts have noted that low-volume periods often exaggerate swings, particularly in high-volatility stocks like TMC. Earlier in the week, TMC closed at $7.62 on Wednesday as investors reacted to perceived progress on deep-sea mining reviews, only to see those gains erased by Friday’s retreat.

“The two-step of pop on narrative and drop on positioning is not unusual for TMC,” said one market strategist. Investors seemingly treated the stock as an event-driven trade rather than a set-and-forget investment.

Regulatory Timeline in Focus

The most concrete near-term catalyst for TMC will be the U.S. regulatory pathway for deep-sea mining. NOAA’s public comment period runs from Dec. 23, 2025, to Feb. 23, 2026, with virtual hearings scheduled for Jan. 27-28, 2026.

Registration for the hearings closes on Jan. 21. The timeline has provided investors with a structured set of milestones that could trigger both bullish and bearish reactions depending on outcomes and media coverage.

Analysts See Upside, But Risks Remain

Wall Street analysts have remained cautiously optimistic on TMC. MarketBeat showed a 12-month average target of $7.42, implying roughly 8.75% upside from recent levels, while TipRanks listed an average target of $8.33, labeling the stock a “Strong Buy.”

However, target ranges have been wide, from $3.75 to $11, highlighting the stock’s dependence on regulatory approvals, commodity cycles, and financing conditions.

Investors should be reminded that TMC is a “path-dependent” stock: price swings will closely follow developments in permits, technology execution, and broader macroeconomic trends.

Options, Shorts, and Macro Drivers

TMC’s trading dynamics have been amplified by significant short interest, elevated call activity, and its pre-revenue status. As of mid-December, about 9.44% of TMC’s float was sold short, leaving 2.9 days to cover.

Combined with year-end positioning and macro volatility, these factors have made TMC a stock prone to sudden gaps up or down.

The broader metals market has provided both tailwinds and caution. Copper prices recently reached record levels, yet economists have warned of potential demand weakness in China in 2026. TMC, tied to future metal supply rather than current production, will continue to sit at the intersection of these risks.

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