A bear case of some magnitude was partially indicated by TLT-SPY breaking out of a falling wedge pattern in January.  It then zoomed up too fast (as players got over bearish too quickly) to the 200 day moving averages.  Unsurprisingly, the stock market bull regenerated and tamped the bearishness down but good.

For the bear case to regenerate now, TLT-SPY (along with many other would-be bear indicators) needs to turn up.  It is at a logical support point at the 50 day averages.  The rest is now up to the herd.