Firstly, the TLT's inception date was on July 22, 2002. This instrument seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of or in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities twenty years or more remaining. There is a lack of data before July 22, 2002. This article will focus on the larger uptrend cycle from there which is presumed to finish a cycle higher from those lows in wave ((a)) in July 2016. The pullback from that high appeared to be an Elliott wave zigzag structure in three waves into the November 2018 wave ((b)) lows.

Secondly, the aforementioned pullback lower in the wave ((b)) was strong enough to suggest it was correcting the cycle up from the all-time lows. Thus it appears ended that cycle. From those November 2018 lows, the instrument has made another high above the July 2016 highs creating a bullish sequence. This sequence higher from the November 2018 lows appears to be incomplete. On the monthly chart shown below, Elliott wave corrective sequences are in either three, seven, or eleven swings. Impulses are in either five, nine, or thirteen swings. It is obvious the three swings lower from the July 2016 highs into the November 2018 lows were of three swings.

The analysis continues and concludes below the Monthly chart.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Thirdly and in conclusion the cycle up from the November 2018 lows ended at the March 2020 highs. Down from there a three swing cycle ended at the March 2021 lows. While a pullback remains above there it can see another swing higher to correct the cycle lower from the March 2020 highs. Afterward, it can see another swing lower to correct the cycle up from the November 2018 lows.