The Zombies Are Finally Being Culled!

One of the adverse effects of extraordinary low interest rates and quantitative easing policies is that it has enabled a lot of zombie companies to stay in business. While this has kept open many companies that should have gone under it has also meant a lot of excess capacity. Keeping the zombies alive hits even the healthy companies. This is certainly not healthy for the long run health of an economy. The good news is that the zombie companies are finally getting culled as the number of corporate defaults has been increasing rapid during 2016. A bad company tends to remain a bad company far more often than not, as interest rates rise then even more zombies will go out of business. The following graphic illustrates the rise in corporate defaults especially in the US. A lot of the companies are concentrated in the energy and commodity space where the price falls in the last couple of years have been significant. There are of course plenty of zombies operating in China so I expect a rise in corporate defaults in emerging markets to increase significantly during the next year or two as global interest rates rise.

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Gary Anderson 9 years ago Contributor's comment

With this logic, rates should go to 50 percent and only the debt free companies would survive! I find this article to be fascinating, but I would like a breakdown of what zombie companies provide as to value to the economy. If a zombie company provides something important, but to just a few people, it could be taken out by rising rates.

Also, remember, it isn't just rising rates that could weaken companies. Many are issued swaps by the banks, and the banks bet on the low floating rate, and the companies are forced, if they want a loan, to take the fixed high rate on swaps. I would like to know how many of them have been wiped out by the difficulty of paying the fixed rate the last couple of years in swaps: https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_swap_rate