The SPX Has Broken The Uptrend

You can't find a more basic looking chart than this one. The SPX has broken the uptrend and is currently trading below the previous week's low. It is the look of a new medium-term downtrend. A reversal of trend can only begin to happen if trading starts to exceed the previous week's high.

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Commodities, Currency

This spreadsheet hasn't changed much since last week.

The strength of the industrial metals continues to surprise while the other commodities are so weak. And for the that matter, the weakness of commodities is a surprise with the US Dollar so weak along with the expectations for growth and inflation being so strong.

It just doesn't line up right, but let's give it some time.

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I feel as though the US Dollar is firming up a bit, but then again the chart does not look good.

The dollar has been down against almost every currency since the beginning of the year, and it is now oversold and maybe ready for a bounce at support? Then again, this chart shows a lower high and moving averages aligned for lower prices.

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The Leader List

There are no changes to the leader list. Former leaders, Brazil and Biotech, continue to be weak.

With so many foreign ETFs leading, it is so surprising to see the gold miners struggling. Maybe the miners are indicating that the foreign stock leadership is only temporary?

This is not the worst looking chart that I have seen, but, also, it doesn't look ready to move to new highs anytime soon. The moving averages are starting to point lower which isn't a good sign, but I am not ready to count the miners out just yet.

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Outlook

The long-term outlook is positive. 
The medium-term trend is up down as of March 21
The short-term trend is down as of March 21

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, ...

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