There’s some big data coming our way this week: jobs data. We’ll get a glimpse of how the market is primed to receive positive or negative news, whether it’s “bad news is good news”... or the other way around.

The Fed, of course, is set to cut rates this month. The market could take them at their word, which would mean a disappointing jobs number might hand us a selloff from here.

I have good reason to think that may well happen. The SKEW index ramped up to 163 yesterday and the VIX was pegged above 20. Rising SKEW is indicative of increased hedging and rising crash risk in equities. What’s more, VX futures are in backwardation, with contract prices falling from the front month all the way out to November expirations.

However, the escalation in the VIX, the quick rise of VVIX, and the precarious position of the S&P 500 at support signal we may get even more room to the downside and steeper backwardation.

There are reasons to pare back risk right now - more trouble in the Japanese yen carry trade and the prospect of recession, too. Stocks are pricing in economic activity around six to nine months in advance right now, so it seems timely that a historically bearish September will prove to be packed with volatility and risk.

That’s what we’re going to talk about starting right now…

Video Length: 00:18:45

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