As expected, the path of the S&P 500 in the first week of October 2016 came in below our standard model's projections, as stock prices continued their mostly sideways trajectory of the last three months, although with a slightly downward course.

Coming into the week, investors appeared to be focusing their attention on the first quarter of 2017 in setting stock prices, but that downward path combined with the news of the week suggests that may have changed, where they are perhaps now focusing more on 2016-Q4.

As for that news of the week, here are the headlines that caught our attention.

Monday, 3 October 2016

• Oil drifts after Brent hits $50 per barrel, U.S. crude touches three-month highs
• U.S. factories rebound, resisting global downward pull
• Wall Street pulled lower by financial, health stocks
• Don't delay U.S. rate hike, says Fed's Mester: Bloomberg

Tuesday, 4 October 2016

• Tech stocks, Deutsche Bank lift Wall Street
• Fed's Lacker says rates might need to rise a lot, case for hike strong - also Fed's Lacker says he would have dissented at September meeting
• Wall St falls on Brexit, Fed jitters

Wednesday, 5 October 2016

• Oil surges over 2 percent to June highs on another U.S. crude draw
• Fed's Lacker says there are signs inflation is heating up - also, Fed's Lacker says strong U.S. jobs report will bolster case for rate hikes
• Energy, bank stocks lead Wall Street higher
• Fed's Fischer says low neutral rate a sign of potential economic trouble

Thursday, 6 October 2016

• Wall Street ends flat with eyes on payrolls

Friday, 7 October 2016

• Fed's Mester calls jobs growth 'solid,' sees rate hike: CNBC
• Wall Street lower after jobs data keeps rate hike on track - also Fed's Fischer says jobs number close to Goldilocks ideal

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz summarizes the positives and negatives economic and finance news of Week 1 of October 2016.