If anything noteworthy happened to the S&P 500 (SPX), you wouldn't know it from how the index changed over the past trading week.

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The S&P 500 closed at 5,304.72 on the Friday before 2024's Memorial Holiday weekend. That was an increase of 1.45 points above where the index closed the preceding week. But that 0.03% gain was enough for the S&P to "eke out" its fifth consecutive "up" week.

In between Friday, May 17 and Friday, May 24, the index set a new record high close of 5,321.41 on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. After which it retreated a full percentage point over the next two days as prospects for rate cuts in 2024 slipped. And then it recovered on Friday to "eke" out that five-week-long win streak. No real explanation for it, other than the bulls and bears on Wall Street were more than ready to go off on their holiday weekends and didn't want to make any waves before they left.

The week's action puts the trajectory of the S&P 500 well within the forecast range for investors focusing their attention on 2024-Q3, which still coincides with Wall Street's expectations for when the Federal Reserve will execute a rate cut. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows where things stand as Wall Street's summer begins:

Here are the week's market-moving headlines, such as they were, which describe a lot more exciting action than we just did....

Monday, 20 May 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil steadies after death of Iran's president, Saudi king's ill health
  • US regulators reconsider capital hike for big banks, WSJ reports
• Fed minions "disappointed" with inflation, want more time before they start cutting rates:
  • Fed policymakers still cautious on inflation and policy
  • Fed's Barr: Inflation data 'disappointing,' tight policy needs more time
    • Fed's Barr says regulators considering 'adjustments' to liquidity rules
• Bailout, economic recovery not as big as wanted in China:
  • China's property support measures disappoint
  • China's fiscal revenue shrank 2.7% in Jan-April amid shaky economic recovery
  • Slump in China's home prices, sales set to worsen this year - Reuters poll
• Dow ends lower and falls back below 40,000 while S&P and Nasdaq advance
  • Nasdaq hits record, S&P ticks higher with Nvidia results eyed
    • Nasdaq, gold scale all-time highs amid cautious Fed comments

Tuesday, 21 May 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil prices fall on fear of high US interest rates depressing demand
    • Oil falls more than $1 as Fed rate outlook stokes demand fears
  • U.S. auto insurance shoppers jump 6% in Q1, TransUnion says
• Fed minions say they're not just doing nothing, they're not hiking rates:
  • Fed officials urge patience on timing of initial rate cut
  • Fed's Waller sees some progress on inflation, no rate hike needed
  • US households still feel pinched by inflation, Fed survey says
• Bigger bailout developing in China:
  • China will control property sector risk, says vice premier
• "Good news, everyone!" say ECB minions:
  • ECB's Lagarde 'really confident' inflation under control
  • Back-to-back ECB rate cuts not a given, Nagel says
• Dow ekes out gain, Nasdaq and S&P notch record closing high a day ahead of Nvidia results
  • Nvidia earnings won't just impact the stock. The entire market is watching.

Wednesday, 22 May 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil slips for third day on likely 'higher for longer' US rates
    • US to close Northeast gasoline reserve with 1 million-barrel sale
  • US home sales post second straight monthly drop; house prices accelerate
• Fed minions becoming less sure of what they'll do next:
  • Fed shifts talk to 'scenarios' as policy grows less certain
  • Fed Officials Saw Longer Wait for Rate Cuts After Inflation Setbacks
    • Fed hawks and doves: what they are saying about policy
    • Not all Fed officials favored tapering of balance sheet contraction process
• BOJ minions see interest rates rise to highest in decade:
  • Japanese 10Y Yield Rises Above 1% For The First Time Since 2013
• Stocks fall after Fed minutes; Nvidia shares climb after the bell
  • Nvidia's blowout forecast adds fresh fuel to AI rally

Thursday, 23 May 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil creeps back up after three days of losses
  • US new home sales fall in April; prices rise from year ago
    • US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage falls below 7%
  • Improved business activity casts doubt over rate cuts
• Fed minions thinking they should worry about inflation more:
  • Fed's Bostic says U.S. not past 'worry point' for inflation
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
  • China push on company dividends should attract investment, regulator says
• BOJ minions see problems for themselves among green shoots in Japan's economy:
  • Japan's factory activity expands for first time in a year, PMI shows
  • Japan factory output seen up, inflation complicates BOJ exit: Reuters poll
  • Japan's inflation slows further, keeping BOJ cautious on rate hikes
  • BOJ's Ueda sticks to economic recovery view, keeps alive rate hike chance
• Signed of improvement in Eurozone economy:
  • Euro zone May business growth at year high, PMI shows
• Whipsawed on Wall Street:
  • How the day started:
    • Nasdaq, S&P 500 set for strong open as Nvidia results light up chip stocks
  • How it ended:
    • Nasdaq, S&P retreat from record levels on rate cut uncertainties; Dow sheds 600 points
  • But there was one big winner in an otherwise down day:
    • Nvidia stock smashes through $1,000 and swells in market cap after big Q1 beat
  • What ruined the bulls party:
    • Wall Street tumbles as AI fervor dampened by rate jitters

Friday, 24 May 2024

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • US's Yellen expresses concern over rising living costs, FT says
  • Oil holds steady around three-month lows
• Fed minions starting to realize they may not have done enough to combat President Biden's inflation:
  • Fed's Waller points to forces that may lift future underlying interest rates
  • Central bankers should acknowledge blind spots, Fed's Mester says
• ECB minions getting excited to deliver a rate cut, won't let rising wages stop them:
  • ECB's Panetta says consensus growing on need for rate cut
  • Wage pick up won't jeopardize ECB's June rate cut, Nagel says
• S&P ekes out five-week win streak while Nasdaq ends at a record high; Dow gains slightly

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continued holding steady in anticipating the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.50% until 18 September (2024-Q3) for the fourth week in a row. The tool anticipates the Fed will start a series of 0.25% rate cuts on that date that will proceed well into 2025 at 12-to-18 week intervals.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's forecast of annualized real GDP growth rate during 2024-Q2 ticked down to 3.5% from the +3.6% growth it projected in a week earlier.

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