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Continued unemployment claims, data from Department of Labor, chart by Mish

Today, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending June 28.

Initial Unemployment Claims

• In the week ending June 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000.
• The 4-week moving average was 241,500, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 245,000 to 245,250.

Continued Claims

• The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 21 was 1,964,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 10,000 from 1,974,000 to 1,964,000.
• The 4-week moving average was 1,954,000, an increase of 15,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 2,004,250. The previous week’s average was revised down by 2,500 from 1,941,000 to 1,938,500.

Initial Claims and 4-Week Average

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Change in Continued Unemployment Claims

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I do not have a satisfactory explanation for 24 straight weeks of alternating up-down changes in continued claims. It’s unprecedented. I suppose it could be a random fluke albeit with an amazingly small likelihood.

For whatever reason or none at all, the pattern broke seven weeks ago, but has since continued, but with a second miss today (no decline).

The alternating bounces (decline in continued continued claims) are getting weaker and weaker.

Final Thoughts

Tariffs and tariff uncertainty have now started to bite. Small businesses will be the ones most impacted.

Trump won an extended stay on reciprocal tariffs through July 31. And in early, July Trump said he will announce deals.

Also, Trump has recently increased tariffs on steel and aluminum. All of these actions and events are guaranteed job killers.

Expect a surge in unemployment claims.

However, BLS data and methods are so poor, it’s hard to say when this turns up in the jobs reports.

QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs

On June 16, I commented QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing

The discrepancy between QCEW and the BLS jobs report is rising.

Related Posts

Yesterday, I noted ADP Reports 33,000 Job Losses in June with Negative Revisions in May

Small and medium-sized businesses shed jobs in June.

Today I noted Jobs Beat Expectations, Up 147,000 in June, but Government Jobs Rise 73,000

Government to the rescue?

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