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CME Fedwatch Data, Mish weighted average calculation 

Rate Hike Synopsis

On January 11, the market expected the terminal interest rate to be about 5.0 percent in May. By December, the market expected the Fed to cut rates to a range of 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent. 

Over the past month, the market ratcheted up rate hike expectations significantly.

As of February 27, the market expects the terminal interest rate to be about 5.5 percent in July. By December, the market expects no more than an eighth of a point cut to a range of 4.25 percent to 5.00 percent. 

Question of the Day

Do you want to hold stocks or is 5.00 percent guaranteed enough? 

At an individual level, you have a choice. 

In aggregate, there is no choice nor any possible escape.

No matter what the price, someone must hold every share of stock perpetually.

What About Bitcoin?

For discussion, please see Why Bitcoin Won't Reach Mass Adoption Ever: A Three Generations Theory Rebuttal

I present three points of view. There's something for everyone to like and hate.

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