Industrial production data from the Fed, chart by Mish

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus estimate was unchanged in May from June. Instead, Industrial production fell 0.5 percent and the Fed revised May from -0.2 percent to -0.5 percent.

Industrial Production Month-Over-Month Details

• Industrial Production: -0.54 Percent
• Manufacturing Durable Goods: -3.70 Percent
• Motor Vehicles and Parts: -3.02 Percent
• Manufacturing: -0.32 Percent
• Aircraft and Parts: +2.27 Percent

Aircraft was the only positive sector in the above group.

Industrial Production Index

Industrial Production Index Since 1972

It seems we have reached a permanently high plateau nirvana.

Recession Lead Times From IP Peaks

Recession lead time calculation and chart based on Fed data, chart by Mish

Peaks in industrial production tend to indicate economic peaks as well. The Recessions in 2001 and especially 2020 were exceptions.

IP peaked eight months ago, a long time by historical standards.

It would be amusing if recession started the very month nearly everyone gave up on the idea.

Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Weak Four of the Last Five Months

Note that Inflation-Adjusted Retail Sales Weak Four of the Last Five Months and real (inflation-adjusted) sales year-over-year were down seven in the last eight months.

EVs

Also note that Despite Huge Incentives, Supply of EVs on Dealer Lots Soars to 92 Days

Why build cars that nobody seems to want?

President Biden can mandate ridiculous rules, but he cannot force people to buy EVs.

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