Dollar index chart analysis

During the Asian trading session, we saw the continued pullback of the dollar index to the 103.20 level. The dollar remains under pressure to visit and test the 103.00 level. That could easily happen if we see a drop below 103.20, the current support level. The report on weaker inflation had a lot of impact on the dollar’s current state.

Market participants characterized that inflation report as a sign that the Fed will not raise interest rates anymore and that we could soon expect to see the first reduction in those interest rates. Such a scenario could easily push the dollar below the 103.00 level. Potential lower targets are 102.80 and 102.60 levels.

What the dollar needs to do to start the recovery

We need a new positive consolidation and a return above the 103.60 level for a bullish option. In this way, we would first form this week’s high. Then, we need to form a new bottom in that zone, from which we would move to the bullish side with a new impulse. Potential higher targets are 103.80 and 104.00 levels. Additional resistance is the EMA50 moving average in the zone, around 103.80 levels. Last week, we failed to move above it.

This week will be interesting with economic news because we will have it from all sides. We’ll highlight the most important ones: RBNZ and the interest rate hike, German CPI, US GDP for the third quarter, China’s Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI, and for Friday, Powell’s speech on potential future steps by the Fed.

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