E The Daily Shot And Data - March 31, 2016


We begin with emerging markets which have been experiencing a worse recession than what we saw during 2008/09. Here is the breakdown by country.

Source: @FitchRatings, h/t Josh

Continuing with emerging markets, here are more updates.

1. Taiwan's economy has been sputtering as a result of the global demand slowdown (especially the PRC). The charts below show Taiwan's output gap and the housing market correction.

Source: HSBC, h/t Josh

Source: HSBC, h/t Josh

Nevertheless, investors are jumping back into Taiwan. Here are the cumulative equity flows into EM Asia.

Source: Morgan Stanley

2. Saudi Arabia's FX reserves continue to decline.

Source: HSBC, h/t Josh

3. Chinese investors are flooding into the US. This is a great way to move one's money out of China to lower the risk of further RMB depreciation.

Source: @vexmark, @Bfly

4. Brazil's public sector deficit looks terrible, missing economists' expectations.

Source: Investing.com

5. Citi expects the Reserve Bank of India to cut rates, as the nation's inflation rate remains benign.

Source: Citi

6. EM currencies have rallied sharply as the Fed turns dovish. On the margins this should help US manufacturers.

Source: ‏@markets

7. FX reserves of emerging economies are still declining but at a slower pace now. Is this slowdown bullish for global equity markets? 

Source: Deutsche Bank

Switching to Japan, it seems that banks are planning to start passing negative rates to their institutional clients - charging them for deposits. With short-term JGB's running negative yields, where can firms place their cash without taking a hit? 

Source: Reuters

Japan's capital goods shipments trend seems to suggest weak CAPEX. Forecasts show that shipments should pick up in the coming months however.

Source: Credit Suisse

We now go to the Eurozone where yields continue to fall. Here is the average euro-denominated IG corporate bond yield.

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