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The long bond verdict is finally in. Jobs and growth outweigh inflation.
 

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US Treasury Yield Notes

• Between August 5 and August 21, bond yields for US treasuries of a two-year duration or longer all rose.
• The period between August 21 and September 2 was very painful for 30-year long bond holders, but favorable for the rest.
• Starting September 2, there was a bond market rally across the board.

Treasury Yield Changes Since September 2
 

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What Happened?

• The ISM report on September 2 showed weak hiring.
• The BLS JOLTS report on September 3 revealed unemployment was above job openings for the first time since the pandemic.
• The ADP report on September 4 was weak, especially for small businesses.
• The nonfarm payroll report on September 5 was a disaster.

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