Sticky price data is from the Atlanta Fed, the CPI is from the BLS, chart by Mish.

The Sticky-Price CPI from the Atlanta Fed was published today as was the BLS CPI report.

The Sticky CPI and Core Sticky CPI are nearly identical. This makes sense given the respective weights are 70.1 and 63.6.

Sticky CPI excluding shelter has been tracking closely to the overall CPI but that is not always the case.

Flexible and Sticky Prices in the CPI Basket

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Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking than Others?

The Atlanta Fed asks Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking than Others? We Think So.

As for what makes prices sticky, think 12 month leases.

For over two years people have been expecting rent to fall and it hasn’t. However, the price of new leases as opposed to renewals are showing price pressures especially in overbuilt markets like Austin, Texas.

Home and auto Insurance are also sticky.

Flexible Price CPI

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Flexible price data is from the Atlanta Fed, the CPI is from the BLS, chart by Mish.

Items that change frequently include gasoline and food at home. These items make up 29.7 percent of the CPI but can have a big impact on the BLS CPI measure because the amplitude of price changes swing wildly, especially energy.

Rent and Owner’s Equivalent Rent

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BLS Rent and OER month-over-month, chart by Mish

OER is the single largest component of the CPI with a weight of 26.766 percent as of February 2024. Rent of Primary Residence is 7.655 percent. The pair account for 34.4 percent of the CPI.

The Atlanta Fed weighs the combined Rent and OER categories as 30.4 percent of the Sticky CPI.

BLS CPI

Last month I noted Another Hotter Than Expected CPI Led by Shelter, Up Another 0.6 Percent

Today, I reported CPI Hot Again, Rent Up at Least 0.4 Percent for 30 Straight Months

Biden’s regulations, big union wage increases, and student debt cancellation are all inflationary.

Big Explosion of Government and Social Assistance Jobs

President Biden is bragging about job growth. But he doesn’t say where those jobs are.

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Data from the BLS, chart and calculations by Mish.

On March 8, I noted a Huge Percentage of Job Gains are Related to Taking Care of Immigrants

The surge in government jobs and social assistance jobs is soaring to handle the massive influx of immigrants.

Health care jobs are rising for the same reason but also because of demographics. Aging boomers need more assistance.

The stick-price CPI is up 4.4 percent from a year ago. The BLS CPI is up 3.2 percent from a year ago.

Even the latter is a mile away from the Fed’s target of 2.0 percent.

And everything this president does adds to inflation. Don’t expect that to change.

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