The 2024 Economic Outlook
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Silicon Valley bank imploded. Taylor Swift started her Eras tour. We entered the debt ceiling debate yet again. OpenAI blah blah. Labor market housing market stock market crypto again somehow inflation federal reserve sentiment gas prices fear.
This year has been tiring for many people, for a lot of reasons.
Good things: We managed to skirt a recession (again!) and get inflation down (somehow!) and maintain a relatively strong labor market (excellent!), and still grow the economy. There were historic labor movements, like the UAW strike, that allowed employees to demand more from their employers.
So many economists were wrong. Everyone thought that we would be in a recession this year. In 2022, Bloomberg had this post stating that there would be a Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden and that sentiment carried into 2023.
Big wrong! And we weren’t! Everyone learned a lot of valuable lessons on how the economy works in the post-pandemic world. As Adam Ozimek writes in The Simple Mistake That Almost Triggered a Recession why they were wrong, with ‘their pessimistic views about the labor market’ being a main issue.
We learned that we don’t have to destroy the economy in order to save it.
Video Length: 00:40:34
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Disclaimer: These views are not investment advice, and should not be interpreted as such. These views are my own, and do not represent my employer. Trading has risk. Big risk. Make sure that you can ...
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