Technical Market Report For September 6, 2025
The good news is:
- The S&P 500 (SPX) & Nasdaq composite (OTC) both closed at all time highs last Thursday.
The Negatives
The first chart covers the last 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
OTC NH, by a small margin, failed to confirm the latest index high last Thursday.
The Positives
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and OTC NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data.
The SPX all time high last Thursday was confirmed by NY NH. NY NH continued moving upward on Friday, which was a down day for the index.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue. NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
NY NL; NYSE new lows have remained at insignificant levels.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue, and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
Nasdaq new lows increased a bit last week, but remain at unthreatening levels.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
OTC HL Ratio deteriorated last week, but remained in positive territory.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY HL Ratio also deteriorated a bit last week, but finished the week at a very strong 87%.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of September during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2024 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2024. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week, so that data has been ignored.
Seasonality for the coming week has been negative; mostly because of an extremely bad week in 2001 which was bad enough to skew the averages.
Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of September.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle. Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.
OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1965-1 0.00% 0.48% 0.62% 0.35% 0.61% 2.06%
1969-1 -0.32% -0.90% 0.09% 1.13% 0.54% 0.54%
1973-1 -0.72% -0.45% -0.42% 0.26% 0.45% -0.89%
1977-1 0.00% -0.05% 0.38% 0.12% -0.37% 0.08%
1981-1 0.00% -2.55% -0.01% 1.50% 1.21% 0.15%
Avg -0.52% -0.69% 0.13% 0.67% 0.49% 0.39%
1985-1 -0.04% -0.53% -1.04% -0.51% -0.94% -3.07%
1989-1 0.00% 0.02% -0.46% 0.09% 0.35% 0.00%
1993-1 0.00% -1.38% -1.17% 0.96% 0.89% -0.70%
1997-1 0.59% 0.66% -1.02% 0.04% 0.57% 0.83%
2001-1 -6.83% -1.55% -1.75% -3.72% -3.25% -17.10%
Avg -2.10% -0.56% -1.09% -0.63% -0.47% -4.01%
2005-1 0.00% 1.20% 0.24% -0.28% 0.44% 1.60%
2009-1 0.00% 0.94% 1.11% 1.15% -0.15% 3.05%
2013-1 1.26% 0.62% -0.11% -0.24% 0.17% 1.69%
2017-1 0.00% -0.92% 0.28% 0.07% -0.59% -1.16%
2021-1 0.00% 0.07% -0.57% -0.25% -0.87% -1.62%
Avg 1.26% 0.38% 0.19% 0.09% -0.20% 0.71%
OTC summary for PY1 1965 - 2021
Avg -1.01% -0.29% -0.26% 0.04% -0.06% -0.97%
Win% 33% 47% 40% 67% 60% 53%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2024
Avg -0.23% -0.05% 0.01% 0.06% 0.05% -0.02%
Win% 50% 50% 56% 63% 56% 58%
SPX PY1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 0.00% 0.17% 0.17% -1.01% -1.15% -1.83%
1957-1 -0.90% -0.93% 0.89% 1.27% -0.04% 0.29%
1961-1 0.00% -0.34% 0.74% -0.16% -0.69% -0.45%
1965-1 0.00% 0.34% 0.34% 0.26% 0.26% 1.20%
1969-1 -1.00% 0.73% 1.68% -0.77% 0.14% 0.78%
1973-1 -0.87% -0.61% -0.16% 0.29% 1.04% -0.29%
1977-1 0.00% 0.27% 0.31% -0.74% -0.94% -1.11%
1981-1 0.00% -1.74% 0.36% 1.47% 1.22% 1.31%
Avg -0.94% -0.20% 0.51% 0.10% 0.35% 0.38%
1985-1 0.01% -0.72% -1.00% -0.72% -0.42% -2.86%
1989-1 0.00% -0.33% -0.94% -0.25% 0.12% -1.41%
1993-1 0.00% -0.61% -0.41% 0.19% 0.92% 0.09%
1997-1 0.23% 0.26% -1.56% -0.70% 1.24% -0.53%
2001-1 -4.92% -0.58% -1.61% -3.11% -1.90% -12.12%
Avg -1.56% -0.40% -1.11% -0.92% -0.01% -3.37%
2005-1 0.00% 1.26% 0.24% -0.38% 0.80% 1.92%
2009-1 0.00% 0.88% 0.78% 1.04% -0.14% 2.57%
2013-1 1.00% 0.73% 0.31% -0.34% 0.27% 1.97%
2017-1 0.00% -0.75% 0.31% -0.02% -0.15% -0.61%
2021-1 0.00% -0.34% -0.13% -0.46% -0.77% -1.70%
Avg 1.00% 0.36% 0.30% -0.03% 0.00% 0.83%
SPX summary for PY1 1953 - 2021
Avg -0.92% -0.13% 0.02% -0.23% -0.01% -0.71%
Win% 43% 44% 61% 33% 50% 44%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2024
Avg -0.19% -0.05% 0.02% -0.14% 0.05% -0.20%
Win% 47% 51% 58% 49% 63% 51%
Conclusion
The strongest sectors last week were Precious Metals (for the 2nd week) and Telecomm while the weakest were Energy (down for the top last week) and Utilities (for the 2nd week).
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday September 12 than they were on Friday September 5.
Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a little while the other major indices were up: so I am calling last week's positive forecast a tie.
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