Technical Market Report For Saturday, Sept. 19

The good news is new lows have remained minimal.

The Negatives

The first chart covers the past six months, showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19-day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each month.

There was a short-term non-confirmation at the beginning of the month; since then, new highs have continued to decline.

Just in case you thought the chart above did not look too bad, the next chart is similar to the one above, except it covers the past nine months. Here you can see short and longer term non-confirmations.

The next chart is similar to the first one, except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and the NY NH in green. The information has been calculated with NYSE data.

This chart is only slightly different from the first chart. The non-confirmation early in the month is more clearly defined, while the decline was arrested last week.

This chart like the second one which covers the past nine months. The deterioration is obvious.

The Positives

New lows remained insignificant. The next chart covers the past six months, showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (four-day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio) in blue. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solidly at the 50% neutral level.

The NY HL Ratio jumped up to a strong 80% last Friday, and the data was positive every day last week.

The next chart is similar to the one above, except it shows the OTC in blue and the OTC HL Ratio in red. The information has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

The OTC HL Ratio also rose, finishing the week at a comfortable 75%. 

Seasonality

Next week includes the five trading days prior to the fourth Friday of September during the fourth year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.

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