Advance retail sales from Commerce Department, chart by Mish

Advance Retail Sales for January

The Commerce Department reports the Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services for December.

• Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.3 billion, down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent) above January 2023.
• Total sales for the November 2023 through January 2024 period were up 3.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.
• The November 2023 to December 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.4 percent (±0.3 percent).
• Retail trade sales were down 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from December 2023, and down 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent) below last year.
• Nonstore retailers were up 6.4 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 6.3 percent (±2.3 percent) from January 2023.

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month

The key phrase in the report is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”

It’s real (inflation-adjusted sales) that matter to GDP. The Commerce Department does not provide that calculation but I do.

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Since 1992

Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail

Retail vs Nominal Chart Notes (Millions of Dollars)

• Real retail sales peaked in April of 2022 at 234,066. They are now 226,130. That’s a decline of 3.4 percent.
• Nominal retail sales were 675,899 in April of 2022. They are now 700,291. That’s a rise of 3.6 percent.

Somehow we avoided a recession, assuming we really did.

Great Consumer Demand?

What is touted as a great consumer demand economy is entirely an inflationary mirage.

In January, car sales fell a huge 1.7 percent from December. Gasoline store sales also fell 1.7 percent. Most of the gasoline decline was due to falling prices, looking ahead the price of gasoline is rising.

Factoring in the CPI, overall real sales decline 1.1 percent vs the reported 0.8 percent.

Excluding cars and gasoline, retail sales were down 0.5 percent. Factoring in the CPI, real sales excluding cars and gas stations fell 0.8 percent.

For more discussion of the latest CPI numbers, please see Another Hotter Than Expected CPI Led by Shelter, Up Another 0.6 Percent

Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar

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On February 8, I noted Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar, Especially Age Group 18 to 39

Credit card debt surged to a record high in the fourth quarter. Even more troubling is a steep climb in 90 day or longer delinquencies.

Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans, It’s a Big Trap

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Yesterday, I noted Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans, It’s a Big Trap

Buy Now Pay Later, BNPL, plans are increasingly popular. It’s another sign of consumer credit stress.

The strength of the consumer and the economy are both hugely overrated.

More By This Author:

Many Are Addicted To “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans, It’s A Big Trap
What’s Really Going On With Rent? Five Measures To Compare
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drop On Unexpectedly Strong CPI Data