Summer Sell-Off: The Only Stocks To Own Now

The market got off to a good start to the trading week on Monday as investors grew hopeful that a last-minute deal would be reached between the European Union and Greece to extend another slug of credit to the latter.

I am less exuberant than the market on this latest “kick the can” effort as it is just delaying the inevitable, and, there are bigger problems lurking just beneath the surface of the global economy. Investors should be hyper-focused right now on what stocks will be able to withstand any corrections or pullbacks, like the ones I detail below.

However, even if this latest “extend and pretend” announcement temporarily buoys the market it will do little to change the long-term future around the “Greece problem”. Sooner or later the country will either be booted from the European Union or its creditors will have to take massive haircuts on their debt holdings. Luckily, the economy of Greece is a nit as far as the global economy is concerned. Now,  moving on to the bigger problems facing the world economy.

More troubling is the market action in China. After doubling over the last year despite the slowest economic growth since 1990 Chinese stocks have sold off furiously over the past week or so and are now in official “correction” mode. This demands watching as the Chinese economy has risen to be the second largest on the globe.

Being in Miami I am also keeping a watchful eye on Venezuela. The country is imploding right before our eyes even if it draws little media attention despite being a bigger economy than Greece and the fact that the country is critical to the world’s oil supply. This will have interesting ramifications to the Miami real estate market as so much money has come into our market over the past decade as most of the remaining wealth of Venezuela continues to flee the country. It also appears China will be saddled with tens of billions of debt it has loaned its socialist ally.

More importantly, I am seeing signs of a building bubble in our own domestic equity market even as the S&P 500 continues to churn in a very narrow trading range over the past few months. I am seeing increasing indicators that usually happen near a top of a market, not near the bottom or even mid-cycles of bull markets. These patterns bear watching as the market has been in rally mode over the past half dozen years even as the economy has turned in nothing but below trend growth during the weakest post-war recovery on record.

Let’s start with Merger & Acquisition activity so far in 2015. Companies are locking in low financing rates to make increasingly bigger purchases, consolidate industries and using acquisitions to fuel growth as organic growth is hard to come by in a global economy that remains tepid. Activity is up to levels not seen since right before the financial crisis. Merger & Acquisition activity also peaked in early 2000 just before the “internet bust”.

In addition, even as business investment levels remain significantly below where they usually would be at this stage of the business cycle companies are buying back record amounts of stock. Finally, IPO activity is extremely strong right now. There are over thirty IPOs scheduled for the month of June alone. A lot of companies coming public are in high beta areas of the market such as speculative small biotech companies that are easily able to raise significant amounts of capital at “optimistic” valuations. It also seems a new restaurant concept gets brought to market on a weekly basis. Investors bid up these newly public companies like Shake Shack (NASDAQ: SHAK) in their first couple of days on the market only to see them come back down to earth a few months later.

I personally avoid this momentum driven trading style like the plague. In short, I am not sanguine about the short-term direction of the market as equities feel fully valued if not overbought at current levels. Investors also do not have the Federal Reserve pumping extraordinary liquidity support into the market as it has for most of the past seven years. We may even see the first interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve since 2006 by the end of the year.

Although I do not find the overall market compelling at these levels and I believe are in the early stages of a bubble forming in some parts of the market one must dance while the music is still playing. I have approximately 20% of my own portfolio in cash right now, this is about twice the normal level I usually have in liquidity. I am also tilting more and more of my existing portfolio in lower beta parts of the market from high beta plays in small caps and biotech.

These include large-cap growth companies in technology like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and some healthcare plays that still have reasonable valuations and sport decent dividend yields. I am also overweight large financials like banks and insurers; both of which will be helped by rising interest rates and an improving economy in the second half of the year. In addition, the current administration is approaching “lame duck” status so regulatory headwinds should recede some before the next election.

Disclosure: :Long AAPL.

This time, be prepared by investing in “Prosperity Growth Leaders”. I show ...

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Carol W 9 years ago Contributor's comment

I agree with you on the financials..I prefer the insurers to the banks as the big banks are still run by greedy knuckleheads and I think they are still playing the same dangerous games they did before.still sitting on bad loans, lying thru their teeth q after q..yes their charts look good but... they have learned nothing and the regs have not been stringent enough imo. the regionals are safer and I have some of those.

Carol W 9 years ago Contributor's comment

I am seeing signs of a building bubble in our own domestic equity market even as the S&P 500 continues to churn in a very narrow trading range over the past few months. Huh? Our market is LAGGING Europe & emerging markets! what bubble?