Stocks Extend Post-Terror-Attack Gains; Oil, Bonds, & Gold Flat
With bond traders coming back to work after yesterday's Columbus Day market closure, yields actually ended practically unchanged on the day (from where futures-implied levels closed yesterday)...
Source: Bloomberg
But since Friday's cash close, yields are significantly lower (10-14bps lower)...
Source: Bloomberg
With 2Y Yields back below 5.00% for the first time in almost a month...
Source: Bloomberg
And rate-change expectations have pushed lower after yesterday's dovish FedSpeak from Jefferson and Daly...
Source: Bloomberg
Equity markets trod water overnight and then took off again at the cash open with Small Caps leading the charge. Around 1300ET the market took a dive as headlines hit of a second carrier group being sent to Israel and also a very ugly 3Y auction which ratcheted equities lower. Things stabilized a bit but then selling pressure hit in the last few minutes...
Mostly thanks to another big short squeeze...
Source: Bloomberg
0-DTE traders aggressively faded today's rally...
For context, the Nasdaq and Small Caps are up over 4% from Friday's post-payrolls lows..
Energy stocks are the best since Friday's close and Banks the worst, but all sectors are green...
Source: Bloomberg
Nasdaq Composite topped its 50- and 100-DMA but was unable to hold them today...
VIX was squeezed back to a 16 handle
The dollar continued its recent leak lower - back at one week lows...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin pushed back lower today after an overnight bounce, back to payrolls lows...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices were modestly lower from yesterday's surge higher after Israeli attack with WTI holding above $85...
Gold was basically flat on the day holding post-payrolls gains...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, two interesting regime shifts.
Tighter financial conditions suggest stocks should be considerably lower...
Source: Bloomberg
...and the decline in reverse repo utilization (and reserves at The Fed) suggest the S&P should be notably higher...
Source: Bloomberg
...perhaps the former tightening is ruining the flow from the latter's shrinkage and pushing them into Bills not Big Tech.
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