Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report).

Here’s the diffusion index (mean at 25) for 3 month unemployment rate change.

Source: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.

The dashed line is Wells Fargo’s assessment of the threshold for national recession based on this indicator.

How’s nonfarm payroll employment doing? Here’s the m/m change, by state.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: WellsFargo, 20 Sept 2024.

Month-on-Month figures are noisy, so here are year-on-year (with battleground states outlined in blue):

Source: BLS, 20 Sept 2024, as edited by author.

For reference, y/y national NFP growth was 1.5%. Hence, five of seven battleground states were above the national average, with Michigan lagging.

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