It took the SPX 6-1/2 months to reach our upside target for 2021. In this mid-year update we will focus on some time cycles and seasonal patterns.

So far, the SPX has been following the seasonal pattern very closely. If the relationship continues to hold, we can expect a sideways phase to begin shortly, followed by an upthrust during the last quarter of the year:

We have updated the 2021 chart by adding some time cycles and a few trendlines to provide guidance for the rest of the year:

The SPX has been trading in a well-defined uptrend channel since November ’20. A break below the bottom of the channel will signal that a sideways-down phase has begun. There is trendline support at 4000, and the yearly pivot is at 3700.

To help put 2021 into perspective, we turn to the DJIA quarterly chart which suggests that, according to both the 25- and 17-year cycles, the 2009 bull market has several more years to run:

Signals, targets and cycles courtesy of OddsTrader and OT Seasonal.