S&P Sets New Closing High; COST Mixed In Fiscal Q4

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The S&P 500 notched a new all-time closing high Thursday, rising by +23 points or +0.40%, to 5745. And it was the laggard among major stock market indexes for the session: the Dow grew +260 points, +0.62%, while the Nasdaq gained +108, +0.60%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 +0.57% on the day.


China Stimulus Brings Big Gains
 

New stimulus policies in China have helped spur some of that country’s biggest stocks notably higher today — and for the week. The big gains began on Tuesday of this week, when it was clear big stimulus moves — coming as they did directly after the U.S. Fed’s interest rate cut — were providing a big lift to Chinese-centric companies.

We say “Chinese-centric” because it’s not all strictly Chinese stocks seeing the windfalls. For every Alibaba (BABA - Free Report), up +10% today, +18% over the last five sessions), Baidu (BIDU - Free Report), +9% today, +17% for the week) and JD.com (JD - Free Report), +14% today, +31% for the week), we also see a Wynn Resorts (WYNN - Free Report) up +8% today (+14% for the week) and Freeport McMoRan (FCX - Free Report) +7% today (+16% for the week).

We’ll see if these stocks can continue to keep pace; they have been down exponentially until recently on deflationary forces within the Chinese economy over the past few years. But the opaqueness of Chinese business to the outside world makes it rarely a slam-dunk, unless you were lucky enough to have been in on the Chinese trade as of late.


Pending Home Sales Disappoint
 

A day after New Home Sales surprised slightly to the upside in August, Pending Home Sales came up shy of estimates: +0.6%, from the +1.0% analysts were expecting and a solid jump from -5.5% reported back in July. Again, we expect lower mortgage rates to spur activity in the mortgage and refi businesses as time moves along.


Costco Posts Mixed Q4 Report
 

Costco (COST - Free Report) shares are down slightly in late trading, -1.2% at this hour, on mixed results for its fiscal Q4 report. Earnings of $5.29 per share outpaced estimates by 24 cents (and nicely above the year-ago earnings of $4.86 per share) on $79.7 billion in quarterly revenues, roughly +1% growth year over year. Full-year revenues of $249.6 billion was beneath the $254.5 billion in the Zacks consensus.

Ex-fuel and foreign exchange costs, the company saw +6.9% gains year over year, demonstrating the importance of lower gasoline prices to Costco’s top line. We know these sorts of things shift over time, and have nothing to do with the quality of service of the big-box discount subscription retailer. Next-quarter guidance numbers are expected on the forthcoming conference call.


PCE Numbers Release Friday Morning
 

To close out the week, we’ll get the biggest economic report so far since the Fed cut interest rates to a range of 4.75-5.00% — Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for August. Due to hits comprehensive nature coming late in the reporting cycle, it offers a synthesized look at various aspects of the U.S. economy. As such, Fed Chair Jerome Powell often cites it as the Fed’s preferred gauge on inflation.

However, with the labor market issues coming to the fore as monthly employment figures have begun to weaken of late, it may be argued that tomorrow’s PCE data may have less of an impact on the Fed’s future monetary decisions than the next Employment Situation report, which is due out a week from Friday. That said, it will be worth taking a good long look at PCE data tomorrow.


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