The consensus narrative is that the correction over the last month has ended as the S&P has bounced over the last week. But the S&P has still failed to surmount its 50 DMA – and was rejected hard there in Tuesday’s session.

As I’ve written and tweeted, I consider the bounce over the last week to be a “bull trap” and that the current range (4950 – 5250) will ultimately resolve lower, ending the bull market or bear market rally of the last 18 months (whatever you want to call it). It’s worth noting that in the tweet linked to, I said the bounce had room to run up to the 50 DMA – which is exactly where it failed on Tuesday. Until the larger range is resolved I can’t declare victory, but Tuesday was a win for the bears.

A bunch of notable stocks reported after the market close Tuesday, the most important being Amazon (AMZN). Revenue was +13% and Operating Income a record $15.3 billion. Clearly AMZN has decided to prioritize profitability the last three quarters – and investors have loved that. Amazon Web Services (AWS) grew 17% and EPS was 98 cents. All in all, I think it was a solid quarter though not an excellent one. The premarket just opened a minute ago and AMZN is currently trading up about 2%.

One of the hottest stocks in the market Super Micro Computer (SMCI) – which just got added to the S&P – also reported after close Tuesday. Revenue of $3.85 billion came in right in the middle of guidance of $3.7-$4.1 billion. They marginally raised full year revene guidance to $14.7-$15.1 billion from $14.3-$14.7 billion and initiated full year EPS guidance of $23.29-$24.09. So the stock was trading at 36x at Tuesday’s close. The report was solid – but that doesn’t seem to be enough given what’s priced in at current levels. Shares are -10% in the premarket.

Last, I want to mention Starbucks (SBUX) earnings because they were bad. Global comps plummetted to -4% and SBUX lowered full year guidance on this measure from +4-6% to a low single digit decline to flat. In other word, sales slowed dramatically at SBUX last quarter and given the discretionary status of its products that may very well be a tell that the consumer is starting to feel pinched. SBUX shares are currently -12% in the premarket.

Looking ahead, there is the Fed Decision at 2:00pm EST today (Wednesday). It’s hard to imagine Powell giving the market much it likes on the rate cut front given current data – but we’ll see. On Thursday afternoon, Apple (AAPL) will report earnings in perhaps the weeks most important data point. On Friday at 8:30am EST the BLS will release the April Jobs Report.

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