Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer

From Tuesday through Thursday, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) clocked three new record highs during the trading week ending Friday, 15 August 2025. The index however dipped slightly on the week's final day of trading to close out the week at 6,449.80, which was up 0.9% from the previous week's closing value. And as it happens, down about 0.3% from its latest record high of 6,468.54 on Thursday, 14 August 2025.

Headlines involving inflation did the most the move stock prices during the week that was. Tuesday, 12 August 2025 launched the series of new highs with the news U.S. consumer price inflation came in lower than expected. That positive momentum was capped off on Thursday, when the producer price index came in higher than expected.

The inflation headlines drove stock prices mainly because of their effect on the expectations for how much and when the Federal Reserve will be setting interest rates through the end of 2025. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter percent at its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting. Beyond that date, the FedWatch tool forecasts additional quarter point rate cuts will take place on 29 October (2025-Q4) and 28 January (2026-Q1).

The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the S&P 500's trajectory is continuing to track along the lower end of the redzone forecast range.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The redzone forecast range is based on the assumption investors would hold their forward-looking attention on the distant future quarter of 2026-Q1 throughout the period it runs. The S&P 500's trajectory however is more consistent with investors focusing their attention on the nearer term quarter of 2025-Q4. We think that focus is related to the uncertainty investors have over how many rate cuts will take place during this final quarter of 2025.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 held steady at +2.5% over the past week.

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