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Please consider the grim ADP^® National Employment Report for November

Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November
Job creation has been flat during the second half of 2025 and pay growth has been on a downward trend. November hiring was particularly weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction.

Manufacturing shed another 18,000 jobs. Professional and business service shed 26,000.

Education and health services gained 33,000.

Changes by Employer Size

• 1-19 Employees: -46,000
• 20-49 Employees: -74,000
• 50-249 Employees: +31,000
• 250-499 Employees: +20,000
• 500+ Employees: +39,000

Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Year-Over-Year

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Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Details

• Small: -197,000
• Medium: +275,000
• Large: +1,012,000

No Surprise

None of this is a surprise. I have been discussing, and predicting this all year.

The tariff impact on small businesses is starting to take a big toll on small businesses.

Unlike large employers, small businesses have fewer means of tariff avoidance and less ability to hold inventory or eat the tariffs.

It’s turning up in other reports.

Value City Furniture Goes Bankrupt, Cites Tariffs, 120 Stores Will Close

On December 1, I commented Value City Furniture Goes Bankrupt, Cites Tariffs, 120 Stores Will Close

American Signature, Inc., parent of VCF, filed for Bankruptcy. Fallout in 17 states.

Readers commented that’s only 1,300 employees. Yep, “only” 1,300 “direct” jobs. It’s always “only” when it pertains to someone else.

But those 1,300 are very valuable to small communities. And those 1,300 will be eating out less and buying less items from other retailers.

Warn Notices

Value City is just one case. Warn notices are soaring. Newsweek reported Mass Layoff Warnings Climb to Highest Level in Nearly a Decade

According to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs, Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) alerts, which employers must issue before conducting mass layoffs, have ticked up in recent weeks. Outside of the initial spike which occurred during the pandemic, the bank said these are now at their highest level since 2016.

In addition to WARN alerts, Goldman’s economists analyzed earnings calls from Russell 3000 firms, finding that “the share of companies mentioning layoffs has increased recently.” In conversations about staffing levels, artificial intelligence has also emerged as a major theme, with “about half of layoff-focused discussions in the last two reporting quarters in the tech sector” including references to the technology.

If you look at the warn notices you will see most of them are “only” 50 jobs here or 10 jobs there. But it adds up to huge numbers.

Impending Layoffs

On November 17, Bloomberg commented Notices of Impending Layoffs by US Companies Surged in October

Some 39,006 Americans were given advance notice as required under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act last month, the preliminary Cleveland Fed measure showed. In monthly data from 2006, that number has only ever been higher in 2008, 2009, 2020 and May 2025.

Add Value City Furniture to the list. It’s “only” 1,300 jobs.

Bloomberg commented “Many optimists have pointed to weekly filings for unemployment insurance, which remain muted.“

Regarding unemployment claims, I am a realist, not an optimist.

Grim Unemployment Picture Is the Combined Worst Since October 2021

On November 26, I noted Grim Unemployment Picture Is the Combined Worst Since October 2021

The continued claims number, rising very slowly, does not tell the full story. Once someone loses a job it is difficult to find another. And as soon as someone exhausts their benefits they are no longer counted.

Initial claims is not a good measure either. The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file. Tariffs hit small businesses and the self-employed disproportionately.

Four Factors Making Things Worse

• The self-employed have no benefits and cannot file an unemployment claim.
• Illegal immigrants are hesitant to file a claim, even those who have been working here for years.
• Illegal immigrants are highly unlikely to respond to BLS phone calls regarding unemployment. This means the unemployment level itself is undercounted.
• Twelve states have a maximum of 21 weeks of benefits. Seven states including Florida offer 16 weeks of benefits or less. Once someone maxes out benefits, they drop off continued claims counts.

The unemployment level is 7,603,000. The 15+ weeks or longer unemployment number is 3,105,000.

Of those unemployed, over 40.8 percent, and rising fast, have been unemployed for at least 15 weeks.

Labor Market Woes

November 7, 2025: Revelio’s Realistic Assessment of the US Labor Market and Jobs – Sinking Fast

Kudos to Revelio for providing an excellent set of jobs-related data.

November 22, 2025: BLS Nonfarm Jobs Revisions Are Negative 26 Out of Last 32 Months

The latest revision sets jobs at -4,000 in August from initial report of +22,000.

You can make excuses or pretend this economic weakness is not tariff related. If you want to worship tariffs, I cannot stop you.

However, increasingly obvious to anyone who can think clearly that tariffs have damaged this economy.

Don’t tell me things will get better if we wait it out, because they won’t. It is 100% certain that tariffs are a net destroyer of jobs. Only those in protected industries benefit.

Steel and aluminum tariffs are the best example. For every steel or aluminum job saved by tariffs (if any) there are tens-of-thousand of consumers and intermediates (think GM) all paying a higher price.

ISM Manufacturing Contracts for the 35th Time in 37 Months

On December 1, 2025 I noted ISM Manufacturing Contracts for the 35th Time in 37 Months

67 percent of panelists are managing head counts, not hiring. Price pressures rising.

Here’s my favorite ISM respondent comment.

“We are starting to institute more permanent changes due to the tariff environment. This includes reduction of staff, new guidance to shareholders, and development of additional offshore manufacturing that would have otherwise been for U.S. export.” (Transportation Equipment)

Hoot of the Day: In response to tariffs (or tariff retaliation) that company is developing more offshore manufacturing and firing US staff, not bringing more manufacturing back to the US.

Don’t worry it’s “only” one comment.

Those tolls are adding up, and it starts with small businesses. You see it WARN notices, in ADP small business reports, in adjusted unemployment claims data, and in the latest ISM report.

You have to be blind to not see it.

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