2022 Q4 GDP data from the BEA, chart by Mish. 

Please consider the Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter of 2022, and Year 2022 (Second Estimate).

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.9 percent. The updated estimates primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up 

GDP 2022 Q4 Revision Summary

(Click on image to enlarge)

GDP 2022 Q4 Revision 1, BEA data chart by Mish

2022 Q4 Revised Details

• Real GDP was up 2.7 percentage points (PP).
• Real Final Sales (RFS) were up 1.2 percent. RFS is the bottom line number. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.
• Inventory adjustments added 1.5 PP to GDP.
• Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers was just 0.1 PP. Government spending including military aid contributed 1.1 PP to the RFS total. 
• Dramatic revision in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) from 2.1 percent to 1.4 percent. 

Numbers to Watch

GDP was revised lower to 2.7 percent. But the bottom line estimate is Real Final Sales (RFS) at 1.2 percent.

The difference between Real GDP and RFS is inventory adjustment that nets to zero over time. 

RFS to private domestic purchasers was a mere 0.1 percent. 

Recession Watch

These numbers do not signal recession but the slowdown is consistent with one. 

On January 26, I commented 4th Quarter 2022 GDP Is Much Weaker Than Headline Numbers, Recession Is Not Off

These revisions add to that view.

Note that Industrial Production Much Weaker Than Expected, With Negative Revisions Too

As I have commented many times, heading into recessions the revisions will tend to be heavily negative. 

Coming out of recessions will tend to be positive.

Current Money Supply Numbers

Money supply numbers are also hugely recessionary. 

We are in the biggest collapse in money supply since the Great Depression.

For discussion, please see Comments From Lacy Hunt on the Fed's Current Money Supply Numbers

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