Stock Market Commentary

We are 28 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the short-term cycle that began in early October. The alpha high (AH) of the current cycle is overdue and it could form at any time.

The magnitude and duration of the current alpha phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish short-term trend and favor additional strength during the next rally phase.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly lower today, holding near recent highs of the uptrend from August. Technical indicators are moderately bullish overall, favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are 28 sessions into the alpha phase rally of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on October 2. The alpha high (AH) is overdue and it could form at any time. The magnitude and duration of the alpha phase rally signal the likely transition to a bullish translation and favor additional short-term strength. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is from November 12 to December 4, with our best estimate being in the November 27 to December 4 range.

• Last STCL: October 2, 2019
• Cycle Duration: 28 sessions
• Cycle Translation: Bullish
• Next STCL Window: November 12 to December 4; best estimate in the November 27 to December 4 range.

• Setup Status: No active setups.
• Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
• Signal Status: No active signals.
• Stop Level: None active.

Short-term Outlook

• Bullish Scenario: A close above the recent high at 3,093 would reconfirm the uptrend from August and forecast additional gains.
• Bearish Scenario: A reversal and close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,037 would predict a return to the lower boundary of uptrend support near 2,925.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70 probable).