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The 3-3-3 Plan Goals

1. Cutting the budget deficit to 3 percent by 2028
2. Boost GDP growth to 3 percent
3. Produce an additional 3 million barrels of crude (or energy equivalents) per day.

How’s Bessent Doing?

Regarding point three, Please note EIA Says U.S. Oil Production Will Peak in 2027

Shale oil production in the U.S. is also expected to peak in 2027.

After the peak, U.S. oil production is forecast to decline through 2050.

U.S. crude oil production is set to peak at around 14 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027, according to the Annual Energy Outlook 2025 of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Last year, U.S. crude oil production grew by 2%, or by 270,000 bpd, to average 13.2 million bpd. Almost all the production growth came from the Permian region, which accounted for 48% of total U.S. crude oil production.

Growth in the U.S. shale patch has slowed in recent years, from the boom years in 2018 and 2019 when total U.S. production was rising by about 1 million bpd annually, thanks to the shale output.

Bessent needs a 22.7 percent improvement from 13.2 to 16.2 million bpd, or equivalent.

Is Trump about to push solar? Wind?

On May 20, 2025, I noted Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” Would Increase the Deficit by $4.8 Trillion

Unfortunately, things keep headed in the wrong direction. The latest compromise added more SALT deductions.

On April 30, 2025, I noted Real GDP Down 0.3 Percent, Real Final Sales Down 2.5 Percent, Inventories Soar

OK, that is a single quarter snapshot. But are we going to perpetually avoid recession?

The overall plan is best described as fantasyland.

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