Amazon (AMZN) Prime Week is back again, and every year retailers ride the coattails of Prime Week with their own sales.  Inflation is still affecting retailers — during the last earnings season, 73% mentioned inflation during their earnings calls.

 

depositphotos

 

Most retailers also agree that consumers are waiting for promotional events in order to shop, as they are cautious and are trading down. Therefore, during this Prime Week, it is very likely that retailers are betting that heavy promotions will entice shoppers to open up their wallets, especially since consumers have become value oriented.

Amazon will offer its deals primarily online and only to its Prime subscribers, whereas Target, Best Buy, Walmart and others will offer the same deals in-store and online. Although the event will be held in-store and online, there’s no doubt consumers will be doing price comparisons online and on their digital devices.

To make the competition more interesting, Chinese retailers Shein and Temu, known for offering low-priced merchandise, are also ramping up their discounting.

 

E-commerce growth comparison

Amazon Prime Day takes place this year July 16-17, during the same week as last year. This year’s Prime Day sales will affect Amazon’s Q3 2024 online revenue, which is estimated to grow 4.7% to $59.975 billion, and is on track to be stronger than the previous two years Q3 quarters (Exhibit 1).

 

Exhibit 1: Amazon Prime Day Revenue in USD Millions: 2019 Actual – 2024 Estimate

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

 

Amazon’s Prime Week deals will be found online. In terms of year-over-year growth, Walmart is expected to see the biggest gain online for the fiscal quarter that includes Prime Week 2024. The discounter is expected to post a 15.0% e-commerce growth for Q2 2024 (Exhibit 2).

 

Exhibit 2: Online Growth Estimate: Quarter including Prime Week

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

Analysts polled by LSEG are already bullish on Amazon’s performance for Prime Day. The consensus for Amazon’s Q3 2024 EPS, including Prime sales, is $1.15. However, there’s a five-star rated analyst with a very accurate rating that published a Bold Estimate, which is different (in this case higher) than the consensus estimate. The analyst expects Amazon to report EPS of $1.28, well above the mean. This suggests that it’s likely that Amazon will beat earnings and post a positive surprise.

The StarMine SmartEstimate is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our studies have shown that when the SmartEstimate differs from the consensus (I/B/E/S mean) by more than 2%, the company is likely to post subsequent earnings surprises directionally correct 70% of the time. This percentage difference is referred to as the Predicted Surprise (PS%) (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3: Amazon StarMine SmartEstimate and Predicted Surprise %: Q3 2024

 

Source: LSEG Workspace

 

Moreover, Amazon is in the top decile for both the StarMine Short Interest, and the Smart Holdings models (Exhibit 4). Amazon scores a 93 out of a possible score of 100 for the Short Interest Model, suggesting that investors are not betting against the company.

Amazon also scores a healthy 71 for the StarMine Analyst Revisions Model (ARM), which is predictive of both the direction of future revisions and price movement. The ARM score suggest that analysts polled by LSEG are likely to revise earnings estimates upward. It also has positive price momentum in its favor (Exhibit 4).

 

Exhibit 4: Amazon StarMine Models Scores

Source: LSEG Workspace

 

Moreover, it is evident that buy-side analysts have become more bullish on Amazon. The StarMine Smart Holdings Model is highly predictive of buy-side sentiment. The model details which factors are important to investors when looking at Amazon.  Among the top categories for Amazon are volume, price momentum and profitability and Amazon has high scores for all of them (Exhibit 5). The online giant has price momentum in its favor, it is profitable and has a high volume of trading. Therefore, it is attractive to the buy-side.

 

Exhibit 5: Amazon StarMine Smart Holdings Model Breakdown – Top Categories

Source: LSEG Workspace

 

The battle for subscriptions

During the pandemic, shoppers flocked online as brick-and-mortar stores remained closed. Giant retailers including Amazon and Walmart saw a spike in membership as shoppers justified the annual fee. Since then, consumers’ shopping behavior has changed dramatically.

Recently, Walmart (WMT) raised its full-year guidance as more consumers continued to gravitate towards everyday values and become loyal shoppers. During its last earnings call, it said that membership was at an all-time high. Walmart+ membership accounts for 54% of its member base and the company said it is “focusing on the things that really matter: deepening digital engagement with our members, 18% eCommerce growth and 1/3 of our members are using Scan & Go now, which is really exciting.” (Source: Walmart Q1 2024 Earnings Call).  Thus, Walmart continues to gain more subscribers on top of the enormous gain during the pandemic. Moreover, consumers are engaging more with its omnichannel presence, which will help drive sales during the Prime Week event.

In the last fiscal quarter, Costco (COST) reported an impressive renewal rate of 93.0% in the U.S. and Canada, and 90.5% worldwide. Despite these high renewal rates, Costco refuses to raise its prices in this economic environment.

Still, in terms of revenue in dollars, Amazon still brings in the highest amount in U.S. dollars (Exhibit 6). Many shoppers couldn’t justify Amazon’s annual fee until the pandemic stimulated stay-at-home orders. As a result, customers started to buy many things online, and started having Whole Foods deliver for the first time. They also started streaming Prime TV movies and binge-watching series. As a result, back then, Amazon saw a whopping 28.7% gain in subscription services revenue in the midst of the pandemic (Q2 2020).

The pandemic pulled forward a lot of demand that, once satisfied, started showing up in slower Prime membership revenue growth. In the last fiscal quarter, Amazon grew its subscription services revenue by 11.0% from the previous year to $10.722 billion. However, subscription revenue growth is projected to slow down by 9.7% in Q3 2024.

In the last fiscal quarter, Walmart reported the strongest membership revenue growth of 21.0%, followed by Amazon’s 11.0% and Costco’s 7.6% year-over-year gain (Exhibit 6).  In order to attract even more new customers, Walmart is currently offering 50% off its annual membership – coinciding with Prime Week, making it the least expensive out of the three club memberships fees. Costco’s membership offering ranges from $60 to $120, below Amazon’s $139 membership fee.

Analysts polled by LSEG are bullish on Walmart’s ability to continue to grow its membership, and project it will grow its membership income by 9.1% for the fiscal year.

 

Exhibit 6: Amazon, Walmart and Costco Membership Revenue in USD Millions: 2023 – 2024

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

 

Given the ability to consistently grow membership income during Prime week quarters, it is evident that promotional events like this not only benefit consumers’ appetite for discounts and promotions, but help discounters attract new customers.

Rising online discounts

Amazon will offer these deals primarily online and only to its Prime subscribers, whereas Target, Best Buy, Walmart and others will offer the same deals in-store and online. Consequently, other retailers are hoping to capitalize on this phenomenon by offering steep online discounts when shoppers compare prices.

To make the competition more interesting, Chinese retailers Shein and Temu, known for offering low-priced merchandise, have also ramped up their discounting over the last week. Since last week, Shein’s average discount penetration (how much of the assortment is on sale) is 80%, and average discount 21% – on already low-prices (Source: Centric Market Intelligence).

Amazon shoppers are more sophisticated as they pay a premium for a subscription that offers them convenience and value. This consumer is all about instant gratification and is willing and able to pay a higher price point for a better-quality product than Shein and Temu’s offerings. Still, both these Chinese retailers do see the value of being part of the Prime Week promotions as consumers will still go online to do comparison shopping.

A consumer strapped for cash would be more enticed to forego the product quality and shipping speed to obtain the product at a lower price point compared to Amazon.

In fact, U.S. mall stores online have become significantly more promotional – Target, for instance, has become more promotional during Prime Week this year, hoping to lure more shoppers. Increasing price competition is already evident in the rising online discounting data among U.S. retailers (Exhibit 7).

 

Exhibit 7: Average Discount Penetration for U.S. Retailers: 2019 – 2024

Source: Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage Co.

 

The discount penetration (how much of the assortment is on sale) in July is slightly higher than this time last year. This is the opposite of what we saw in the first quarter of this year, when retailers were less promotional.

In July, 38% of U.S. retail online merchandise has gone on sale (Exhibit 7). LSEG discovered this in a collaboration with Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage, which analyzes retailers, brands, online trends and products across the globe.

While still early in the month, the July discount penetration of 38% rose well above the first quarter 2024 average of 29%, as retailers try to piggyback on Amazon’s Prime Day deals to build customer loyalty and entice shoppers to spend on discretionary items.

The first quarter showed strong consumer spending. However, they pulled back in the second quarter as demand for discretionary items dropped. Consumers traded down as preferences have changed.

Still, the most sought-after items this year included items such as outerwear and jackets (Exhibit 8). Given the economic climate and consumers’ appetite for staples, it will be interesting to see if this pattern holds. Moreover, this year there are a number of major sports events, including the Olympics and international soccer tournaments, which have enticed shoppers to search for athletic wear deals. Search data suggests that shoppers continue to look for value around Adidas Sambas, Nike, and OnCloud shoes and other athletic wear merchandise (Source: Centric Market Intelligence).

 

Exhibit 8: Top sold out categories YTD 2024

Source: Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage Co.

 

Meanwhile, the average percent discount in July stands at 36% so far and is below last year’s levels of 39%. It is also below the 2023 average of 38%, but this average could still shift over the remainder of the month (Exhibit 9).

 

Exhibit 9: Average Promotional Discount for U.S. Retailers: 2019 – 2024

Source: Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage Co.

 

Although Amazon initiated Prime Day, other retailers such as Target introduced Cycle Week to take on Prime day promotions. This event is exclusively offered to Target’s clients who are part of its loyalty program. Unlike Walmart and Amazon where shoppers have to pay to participate in the membership, Target’s loyalty program is free.

Accordingly, Target is remaining “competitive with the market” by following a similar pattern to others in the industry on Prime Week. Target has been ramping up its assortment for Prime Day; its discount penetration of 59% is above its peers’ average of 32% (Exhibit 10).

The discounter acknowledged the importance in today’s environment for consumers to stretch their budgets in the face of suddenly-high prices. “But low prices are only one of the many ways we deliver value.  Another way is through our Target Circle loyalty program, which we relaunched in April. At well over 100 million members, Target Circle is already one of the largest loyalty programs in the United States. And we’ve redesigned the program to deliver even more value while making it easier to use and understand” (Source: Target Q1 2024 Earnings Call).

Exhibit 10: Average  Discount Penetration on Prime Week: 2019 – 2024
 
Source: Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage Co.

 

Meanwhile, Target’s average percent discount has come down compared to last year for Prime Week but remains above its peers’ level (Exhibit 11).

 

Exhibit 11: Average Promotional Discount on Prime Week: 2019 – 2024

Source: Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage Co.

 

Back-to-school

No matter how the economy is doing, back-to-school happens every year and parents budget for it. Retailers are definitely taking advantage of Prime Week to attract those parents.

Retailers know they are dealing with a penny-wise consumer who will be looking for promotions on staples. As a result, Amazon will offer “subscribe-and-save” items on sale during the Prime event, i.e., ‘consumer staples’, that Amazon already knows people want. Target is using a similar approach and blasting their home page with back-to-school deals for Prime Week.

Landing on Target’s home page are back-to-school deals, as the retailer has dialled up the discounts this year. The back-to-school discount penetration (the amount of merchandise including backpacks, kid’s apparel and footwear) has risen to 66% this year, which is above its peers’ average of 30%. Meanwhile Target’s average discount on BTS items slightly rose to 22%, which is also above its peers 10% average discount. The sold-out rate of 25% is below than last year’s 35%, so far. Please note, “sold out” includes items that went completely out of stock at any point during that period, even if they were then restocked – it is still counted as sold-out.

 

Exhibit 12: Target’s Back-to-School Sold out % and Discount Avg: 2022-2024

Source: Centric Pricing, formerly StyleSage Co.

 

Prime Week is more about the scale of the event, and trying to reach new customers, and all retailers will be competing to gain more customers. LSEG I/B/E/S data shows that shoppers see the value in joining these programs, as membership subscription revenue continues to grow. Moreover, more players continue to enter the promotional week to gain a piece of the pie of shoppers looking to save money. Still, retailers are protecting margins and have become more strategic on the average promotional discount and discount penetration offered to attract shoppers. 

---

More By This Author:

S&P 500 Earnings Dashboard 24Q2 - Friday, July 12
Ultra-Short Obligation Funds See Largest Weekly Inflow Since 2021, Attracting $1.5 Billion
U.S. Weekly FundFlows Insight Report: General U.S. Treasury ETFs Take In $1.4 Billion, Eleventh Consecutive Weekly Inflow