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​The stage appears to be set for a global melt-up. The S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high the week before last. The index has remained well above both its 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) and its 21-EMA.
 

Unlike previous rallies, this move was not driven by Magnificent 7/Big Tech. The equal-weighted S&P 500 (each company receives 1/500th weighting) has just broken out to new all-time highs as well.
 

We have received confirmation of this bullishness from the Russell 2000, which is comprised of 2,000 small-caps stocks, and as such represents a very broad index of companies. The Russell 2000 just broke out of a four-year cup and handle formation. Again, this is very bullish.
 

The breakout is also being confirmed by large-cap stocks. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones transportation Index hit new all-time highs. According to “Dow Theory” (a precursor to technical analysis which predicts big picture moves for the markets), this represents a bullish confirmation.
 

Again, there is simply nothing bearish about the charts provided above. Anyone telling you the markets are signaling trouble ahead is not looking at what the market is actually doing. If anything, the bull market is now broadening, with multiple indices confirming the move.

Indeed, there is a sound macro framework for this price action.

1. The economy continues to grow, as evidenced by tax receipts (which cannot be faked), retail sales (7% growth year-over-year), and more. True, much of this growth is being driven by the top 10% of consumers, but in the aggregate, the economy is growing.
2. Corporate profits are surprising -- to the upside. Q3 25 EPS growth clocked in at 11%, representing the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit EPS growth.
3. The Trump administration wants interest rates as low as possible. To that end, within six months, the President will effectively control the Fed.

Adding to that, the President has already appointed three of the seven members of the Board of Governors. If Lisa Cook is forced to resign, that number will jump to four (a majority). The President will have a new handpicked Fed Chair by May 2026 (if not sooner depending on whether or not Jerome Powell is forced out). The President and his inner circle have suggested that rates should drop to 1%, if not lower, as soon as possible.

None of this is bearish for risk assets. If anything, it appears the US is leading the entire world in a “run it hot” economic framework that uses fiscal dominance/stimulus/monetary easing to achieve growth by any means possible. You can either profit from this, or be left behind.

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