Retail sales from commerce department, chart by Mish

Advance Retail Sales

Today, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for November.

• Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.4 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but up 6.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2021. 
• Total sales for the September 2022 through November 2022 period were up 7.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.
• Retail trade sales were down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2022, but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above last year. 
• Gasoline stations were up 16.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from November 2021, while food services and drinking places were up 14.1 percent (±3.0 percent) from last year

The key phrase in the report is "adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes."

Retail sales took a seasonally-adjusted 0.6 percent dive in November. Every major category except food and food service declined. 

Spotlight on Food 

People spent less on gas and more on food. Not even the food departments of Costco and Walmart could save General Merchandise from a decline. Department stores were miserable.

Spotlight Motor Vehicles 

Motor vehicles and parts sales declined 2.3 percent. 

What happened to that alleged pent up demand for autos due to part shortages?

Month-Over-Month Advances and Declines

• Food Service: +0.9 percent
• Food Stores: +0.8 percent
• Gas Stations: -0.1 Percent
• General Merchandise: -0.1 Percent
• Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: -0.2 Percent
• Excluding Motor Vehicles: -0.2 Percent
• Nonstore (Think Amazon): -0.9 Percent
• Motor Vehicles: -2.3 Percent
• Department Stores: -2.9 Percent 

Food and Food services are the only areas where consumers increased spending in November.

Not to worry, Janet Yellen is bragging about how well the economy is doing.

Real vs Nominal Sales 

Retail Sales from Commerce Department, Real Sales CPI-Adjusted by Mish

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over-Month 

Key Real vs Nominal Points

• Real (inflation adjusted) sales are well below where they were in March of 2021.
• Real sales have decline 7 out of 11 months in 2022
• Nominal sales have declined only 3 times in 2022
• It's real sales, no nominal, that drives GDP

Fed and Congressional Stimulus Explained 

Understanding Inflation

• The Fed held interest rates too low to long.
• Biden did a reckless final round of fiscal stimulus
• Biden's eviction moratoriums put additional money in people's pockets.
• Supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine added to the mix. 
• Then finally, consumers did a sudden switch from goods to services.  

Economists are still struggling to understand inflation. What is it about that chart they fail to understand?

Note the yellow highlights. Spending can easily hold up in the early stages of recession. 

That third round of unwarranted fiscal stimulus may still be playing a role. 

The Price of Food Jumps Again in November, What's in Your Basket?

Year-Over-Year the CPI is up 7.1 percent.

Food and beverage, food at home, and food away from home are up 10.3 percent, 12.0 percent, and 8.5 percent respectively.

For discussion and several charts please see The Price of Food Jumps Again in November, What's in Your Basket?

Shelter

With Food and Shelter Soaring, Who Can Afford Anything Else?

Please see CPI Cools Significantly in November But Rent and Food Still Sharply Increasing for more CPI details.

And for shelter and rent analysis, please see Ignore the Pundits, Don't Expect Big Declines in the Price of Rent

Any more questions?

More By This Author:

The Fed Projects Interest Rates Higher For Longer At Least Through 2023
The Price of Food Jumps Again In November, What's In Your Basket?
CPI Cools Significantly In November But Rent And Food Still Sharply Increasing